Among other things, the biggest challenge the United States-led West faces before attacking Shia-dominated Iran, which no doubt is passing through a serious economic crisis, is that the government in Tehran, against the general propaganda, enjoys the overwhelming support of the Sunni masses throughout the planet.
Sunnis roughly form 85 to 90 per cent of the 200 crore Muslims. While those Iranians who have been protesting against their government may have genuine grievances, yet, Sunnis almost all over the world – cutting across the ideological lines – are praying that the embattled country soon come out of this trouble and stand up against the global gangsterism of the West.
Some Sunni rulers as well as clerics may have issues with the Shias, but the popularity of the Islamic Republic has soared immensely in the Muslim world, especially after the 12-day-long war with the US-led Israel in June 2025. Arabic social media, very much against the Western expectation, was flooded with messages backing the massive Iranian bombardment of Israel. At least there is a country which is hitting Israelis and their masters back with equal ferocity, was the common refrain among the citizenry.
Western anxiety
Donald Trump and his pals in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, etc, may be feeling elated over the street-rioting in Iran, yet the fierce outpouring of support in the Sunni world for the government in Tehran is causing immense anxiety among them.
They are worried as to why their propaganda of the Shia-Sunni rift is not working anywhere.
Some Gulf regimes, including that of Saudi Arabia, were taken aback by the hostility displayed for Zionists by the common population. There is no denying the fact that the Iranians in general have to pay a heavy price because of all sorts of sanctions and trade boycott by the West ever since the February 11, 1979, revolution. Something between USD 100 billion and 120 billion of Iranian assets are lying frozen in international banks.
Immediately after the revolution, the Ayatollah Khomeini-led revolutionaries had to confront the counter-revolutionaries, leading to the assassination of then-president Mohammad Ali Rajai, prime minister Javaad Bahonar and Chief Justice Ayatollah Beheshti in 1981. The anti-Islamic groups were backed by the US and its allies. Then Iran had to fight an eight-year-long (1980-88) devastating war with invading Iraqi forces.
Notwithstanding some historical differences between Shias and Sunnis, there was always recognition in the Muslim world of Iran’s consistent stand against the Zionists and the sacrifices the country had made in this regard. Ayatollah Khomeini’s appeal for unity among Shias and Sunnis impressed many Muslims. It needs to be mentioned that the Arab dictators’ aversion to Iran’s post-revolution government had less to do with religion but more with their own survival. What they feared most then was that the anti-monarchy movement, which overthrew the Shah of Iran, might sweep the entire region.
Similarly, Hamas, like the Saudis, is a Salafi Sunni outfit, yet the royal family in Riyadh dislikes this Palestinian group because it too is inclined towards the Muslim Brotherhood, a pan-Islamic movement which opposes kingship. In total contrast, Shia Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Ansarullah (Houthis), are fighting for the cause of Al-Aqsa, though they have no territorial dispute with the Zionist state.
The widespread sympathy of the Sunnis for the establishment in Tehran has prompted the neighbouring Arab rulers to warn the United States of attacking Iran. This is a complete departure from the past when these titular heads financially and militarily backed the Saddam Hussein-led Iraq to nip in the bud the 1979 revolution. This led to the killing of lakhs of Iranians and Iraqis. A couple of years later, these anti-Iran Arab countries started quarrelling among themselves, leading to the invasion of Kuwait by good friend Iraq. What happened afterwards is very well known.
Divided house
The problem with the West is that at this point, it appears to be a divided house. Trump’s erratic behaviour and his open threat to snatch Greenland from Denmark, an original member of NATO, and his stand on Ukraine have caused a lot of worry in Europe. The abduction of the Venezuelan President and his wife also caught friends in Europe off guard. Not only is Washington isolated, but it has also antagonised Russia and China.
Besides, the bloody nose the US-led Israel received at the hands of Iran last June is coming in the way of inspiring confidence among the NATO members. So, there is little likelihood of an Iraq or Afghanistan-type united Western expedition against Iran. At the same time, the US allies are well aware of the disastrous consequences of invading these two neighbours of Iran after September 11, 2001, the destruction of the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.
Shia crescent
A few months after the capture of Saddam Husain (who was later executed) in 2004, King Abdullah of Jordan made an absurd claim of the emergence of a Shia crescent right from Lebanon to Iran. Actually, he spoke on behalf of the Western masters to justify the prolonged stay of the NATO army in the region.
What he deliberately ignored is that Shia-dominated neighbouring Azerbaijan has provided a base to Israel, the sworn enemy of Iran.
In the same way, post-revolution Iran has shown no sign of aggression towards the Shia majority of Bahrain, which is incidentally ruled by minority Sunnis. This is notwithstanding the fact that imperial Iran under Raza Shah Pehalvi, till 1970, used to claim Bahrain as its state.
If things really go out of hand, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West will have to pay more dearly, as Iran is a much bigger country and enjoys a much larger support base. Unlike Saddam or The Taliban, the Iranian government is not a global pariah. Russia and China have much at stake in the region and peace is now very much in the interest of the Gulf countries.
Anyway, in spite of the goodwill of the global Muslims in general, the present Iranian establishment will have to address the genuine demands of its people. It is a fact that the economic challenge before the government is big and cannot be wished away. And, it is also a reality that a sizeable section of Iranians hate the Islamic establishment and its support to the larger cause of Palestinians in particular and Muslims in general.
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