London, November 11: The OPEC oil cartel could lose 4.0 trillion dollars in revenue between now and 2030 if a UN conference in Copenhagen next month strikes a deal on global warming curbs, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
"Producing countries are very worried about what will happen to their revenues," said IEA chief economist Fatih Birol, who presented the agency's World Energy Outlook report here.
"With the current policies in place, OPEC revenue will be about 28 trillion dollars (18.7 trillion euros) between 2008 and 2030 if there is no climate change deal," he said.
"If there is a deal, OPEC revenues will be only 24 trillion dollars."
The IEA scenario is based on an assumption that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would be limited to 450 parts per million, which scientists say would in turn limit a global temperature rise to 2.0 degrees.
With no change in current energy policies, worldwide demand for oil would come to 105.2 million barrels a day between now and 2030, according to the IEA.
With the limitations envisaged by the agency, demand would come to only 89 million barrels a day by 2030.
The IEA in the report said the 4.0-trillion-dollar estimate "can be seen merely as a postponement of revenue, as more reserves are left under the ground to generate revenue for future generations."
Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said Sunday that the 13 members of OPEC were concerned about the impact on their economies of any new taxes on the oil and gas industries approved in Copenhagen.
Khelil said OPEC producers, including Algeria, would work together to strike a common position ahead of the December conference "in order to protect their interests."
Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Angola's oil minister and current OPEC president, vowed last month that the world's major oil producers would resist any move that would punish their industries.
"Oil producers must ensure that their interests are properly represented in the post-Kyoto agreement," he told an OPEC summit in Vienna.
In Copenhagen, world leaders will try to seal a new accord to fight climate change after the Kyoto Protocol requirements expire in 2012.
---Agencies
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