New Delhi: Passenger car ownership will witness a jump of a whopping 775 per cent in India over the next 24 years with the number of vehicles going up from 20 per 1,000 inhabitants at present to 175, a study says.
Passenger vehicle ownership has nearly tripled in the past decade, bringing with it a strong increase in tailpipe and non-exhaust emissions and causing damage to human health, the report by International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Coordinated urban planning and investment in public transport as proposed in the governments smart city mission offer a “promising” avenue to curb transport-related air pollution, it said.
“In the new policies scenario, passenger car ownership grows from less than 20 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants today to 175 cars per 1,000 people in 2040, and overall road passenger vehicle activity increases more than six-times,” the World Energy Outlook (WEO) report said.
Despite fuel economy improvements in the light and heavy duty vehicle fleets, transport oil demand is expected to rise from its present 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to more than 5 mb/d in 2040.
On the governments move to adopt Bharat VI emission standard nationwide by April 2020 after skipping Bharat V, the report said implementing these standards will limit gasoline and diesel fuels to 10 parts per million (ppm) of sulfur, “bringing India into line with the global leaders in fuel sulfur standards”.
It said around three-quarters of total passenger vehicle-kilometres in India today are driven in urban areas.
“Coordinated urban planning and investment in public transport, as envisaged in the Smart Cities Mission, offer a promising avenue to curb transport-related air pollution.
“The projected adoption of Bharat VI does constrain the growth in air pollutant emissions from transport. The decline is underpinned by increasing stringency of standards for HDVs with a key role for buses,” the report said.