Can Nitish Kumar avoid the fate of his mentor Fernandes

The difficulty Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faced while taking oath on November 20 reminded one of the campaign undertaken by his frail-looking mentor, George Fernandes, during the 2009 Lok Sabha election.  The founder of Samata Party, the earlier version of Janata Dal (United), was denied ticket by none else but his most trusted disciple on the grounds of poor health. Fernandes was then suffering from Parkinson and Alzheimer diseases, yet he insisted on contesting the election. 

Fernandes then made a scathing attack on Nitish and termed him a dictator who had hijacked the party. But since the Bihar chief minister was at the top of the world then, Fernandes’ decision to contest as an Independent from his constituency, Muzaffarpur led to his crushing defeat. He got just 3.67% votes and polled a meagre 22,804 votes.

Some disgruntled Janata Dal (United) leaders like Digvijay Singh and Dr Jagannath Mishra, now both dead, stood behind Fernandes during the electioneering but to no avail. Notwithstanding immense popularity Nitish failed to curb the murmur within, especially by the old guards of Socialist movement. Perhaps this compelled him to send Fernandes to Rajya Sabha, but surprisingly just for 11 months, on the seat vacated by then president of the party Sharad Yadav following the latter’s resignation from the Upper House after he got elected to Lok Sabha. There was no dearth of independent political pundits who criticized this gesture of Nitish and termed it as humiliating. In the autumn of his life Fernandes deserved a better deal, but he was nominated for Rajya Sabha just for 336 days–between August 4, 2009 and July 7, 2010. That was the sad end of an illustrious innings of Fernandes who continued to live for nine more years. Like Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi of the BJP now. Ailing Fernandes had no role to play in these nine years. 

History Repeats Itself

A decade-and-a-half later Nitish has been facing identical situation. But unlike Fernandes, who forfeited his deposit in 2009 in Muzaffarpur from where he first got elected from jail in 1977 during Emergency, Nitish was rewarded by the electorate though he too fumbled several times and struggled for words during the election campaign recently, and even during the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. In spite of this disadvantage, his party won 85 seats against 89 by the alliance partner Bharatiya Janata Party.

In contrast, physically weak and depleted 79-year-old Fernandes, once known as the rising star of Indian politics, failed to earn sympathy votes in Muzaffarpur, the constituency from where he shot into global limelight.

True, unlike Nitish, he did not get any opportunity to cultivate his own social constituency in stratified Bihar. Yet his political stature demanded much better treatment from the electorate as well as those he promoted, and that too at the fag end of his career. 

Adroit Nitish is much luckier as the voters, fully knowing his mental health, repose full faith in him. 

Problem of plenty 

After the stunning victory of the National Democratic Alliance Nitish is confronting the challenge of plenty. Not only his party, but all the alliance partners of JD(U) performed exceedingly well. 

While in the past Nitish had mastered the art of emerging out of crisis, it would be an uphill task at this point to control the hold on power even after his party had achieved 85% strike rate—a feat never achieved by it. The same set of voters who exclusively backed him so strongly are now not very sure whether he would be able to deliver or not. 

As Janata Dal (United) is facing a crisis of succession, and the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the largest single party in the state, it is quite clear as to who would call the shots. The BJP had got most of the important portfolios, including home, and was till last even eyeing for the post of Speaker. 

Now that the BJP has tasted the real power, it may in future not promote anyone from the alliance partner for the post of chief minister as it did in the case of Nitish some quarter century back.  Besides, the saffron party of today is very different from the one led by the Vajpayee-Advani duo. So, there is little scope for Lok Janshakti Party chief Chirag Paswan, to nurse the dream of being projected as CM face of the National Democratic Alliance in the days ahead.

The BJP’s Silent Takeover

The over-zealous BJP ministers will try to outperform the previous government. Immediately after taking oath, the deputy chief minister, Samrat Chaudhary, who also holds the home portfolio, issued a stern warning to criminals and law-breakers that they have no place in Bihar.

During his two decade-tenure as the chief minister, Nitish had always kept the Home portfolio with him. Now, a weak chief minister had to make this concession.

Though it is quite early days bulldozers have swung into action, and administrations in different districts have undertaken anti-encroachment drives. Encounters against the gangsters and raids have been launched against corrupt officials and employees.  All these steps are being taken to show that the present regime is better than the one which governed Bihar for the last so many years.

If Nitish Kumar had consolidated himself by repeatedly raising the bogey of misrule during the 15 years of Lalu-Rabri raj, the present saffron-dominated establishment has started its silent campaign to show the preceding NDA government in poor light.  The deteriorating mental health condition of Nitish is being held responsible for the collapse of law-and-order machinery in the state. 

Nitish may be for some time at least till the upcoming election in five states—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry—allowed to rule Bihar. With the help of pro-BJP elements in JD (U) a peaceful coup may be staged against him. 

The big question is: will he be accommodated with some decorative post by the BJP top brass or will he be allowed to fade away from people’s memory as happened with George Fernandes. Only time will tell.