New Delhi: Detailing the state of the economy ahead of the Budget on February 1, the chief economic advisor (CEA) to the government, Krishnamurthy Subramanium on Friday presented the economic survey 2020-21. He dedicated it to all the COVID-19 warriors who upheld the country during what he called a ‘once-in-a-century’ crisis.
The Economic Survey has forecast a “V-shaped” recovery for the Indian economy and real GDP growth of 11 per cent in 2021-22, on the back of the roll-out of a massive vaccination drive against the COVID-19.
Crediting the V-shaped recovery to the government’s move to impose a lockdown from late-March to May to curb the spread of coronavirus, Subramaniam compared it to the resilience showed by the Indian cricket team in the Border-Gavaskar series in Australia.
“Early, intense lockdown not only saved human lives; but also enabled quicker economic recovery,” he said, presenting the survey.
Earlier in the day, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had tabled the survey both in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.
Here are the key highlights of the Economic Survey 2021:
– Economy projected to contract by 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 as the economic activity was hit due to the onset of COVID-19. On the other hand, a robust economic recovery of 11 per cent is projected for the fiscal year 2021-22 on the back of the rollout of a massive vaccine drive.
– The economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level. These projections are in line with IMF estimate of real GDP growth of 11.5 per cent in 2021-22 for India and 6.8 per cent in 2022-23.
– Agriculture is the only sector which is expected to grow by 3.4 per cent. While Industrial sector will contract by 9.6 per cent, the Services sector will contract by 8.8 per cent.
– The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections have also increased in the second half of the year as the monthly GST collections in December 2020 stood at Rs. 1.15 lakh crore.
– India’s exports are expected to contract by 5.8 per cent and imports by 11.3 per cent during the second half of the current financial year.
– Inflation between April and December 2020 stood at 6.6 per cent in comparison to the previous year on account of high food inflation of 9.1 per cent.