Afghanistan likely to plunge into civil war after Taliban’s victory: Expert

The expert is of the opinion that China would play a "more reserved role" as instability is not good for business

Washington: A Taliban’s victory does not mean a “better future” for Afghanistan as there could be local outbreaks of civil war and insurgencies against the terror group, said political commentator Harlan Ullman.

In an opinion piece in The Hill, Ullman, a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council, said that the few had predicted that a collapse of Afghanistan would take place “so suddenly” with Taliban control surging to about 85 per cent of the country.

“Obviously, if or when the Kabul government falls or cedes power, nation-building and democratization, again, will be losers. A Taliban victory, likewise, does not mean a better future for that country. Very likely, Taliban rule will vary across the provinces,” Ullman said.

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“In some cases, local war lords will remain in power, accommodate the Taliban or suffer strangulation by being cut-off from access beyond its limited areas of control. That could ignite local outbreaks of civil war and insurgencies against the Taliban. Whether these will be persistent and widespread will depend on the brutality of Taliban rule and the capacity of Afghans to continue the fight after decades of violence and conflict,” he added.

Ullman believes that Pakistan will attempt to impose greater influence on the Taliban through the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) and this will doom “Prime Minister Imran Khan’s outreach to improve relations with the U.S. to failure.”

“The U.S. has no illusions about Pakistan’s past duplicity in denying its support of the Afghan Taliban. And, as extremism grows, so will western concerns about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons,” Ullman wrote.

The expert is of the opinion that China would play a “more reserved role” as instability is not good for business.

“Aside from an interest in Afghanistan’s rare earth mineral and other resources, China’s Belt and Road initiative is not suited for these conditions and thus won’t reach Afghanistan,” he wrote.

The Biden administration, the expert said, will be rightly chastised for abandoning many tens of thousands of Afghans and their families who supported and worked for coalition forces.

Afghanistan is witnessing a surge in violence as the Taliban has intensified its offensive against Afghan forces and civilians with the complete pullback of foreign forces just a few weeks away.

Due to rising violence in the country by the Taliban, the situation is deteriorating badly as the terror group has been looting people and killing civilians after capturing multiple areas from the government.

The Taliban escalated its offensive against the Afghan forces soon after the US forces started leaving Afghanistan in large numbers after the peace deal signed between Washington and the Taliban in February last year.

Taliban has toppled six provincial capitals in the past 24 hours which brings the total number of provinces fallen to the terrorists to 18, local media reported on Friday.

Khaama Press reported that centers of Kandahar, Helmand, Herat, Badghis, Ghor, Logar, Zabul, and Oruzgan provinces fell to the Taliban in the past 24 hours.

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