Hyderabad: BJP seems to have had two undeclared partners in Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, which had helped the saffron party in dividing its votes in Gujarat Assembly polls 2022. BJP has bagged 52.5% of the vote share and with just 3.4% increase from 2017, it has grabbed 156 seats. In the 2017 state elections, BJP won 99 seats with 49.1% votes. A surprising increase of 57 seats at just 3.4% increase in vote share.
AAP and AIMIM seem to have dented the Congress vote share of minorities in Gujarat in the Assembly polls, bringing down the main Opposition party’s vote margin considerably in various seats across the state.
The BJP has won 17 of the 19 assembly seats in Gujarat where Muslims have strong hold. However, BJP hasn’t fielded a single Muslim candidate on 182 seats in the Gujarat assembly post riots. The last time it had fielded a Muslim candidate was in the 1998 election.
The minorities, primarily Muslims make for 9 percent of Gujarat’s population but never had a visible representation in the assembly. Only one Muslim candidate Imran Khedawala who fought on a Congress ticket has made it to the Gujarat assembly this time. It is to be noted that to defeat this Muslim candidate, AIMIM Chief Asaduddin Owaisi had literally cried and begged to vote for his candidate Sabir by giving reference of Bilkis Bano.
Kejriwal led AAP and Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM may not have won enough seats in Gujarat but the splitting of votes is evident that actually helped the BJP. The entry of the AAP and AIMIM has not only disturbed Congress’s minority vote bank but has also helped the ruling BJP, which did not field a single Muslim candidate in the elections, at the cost of the Congress.
The AIMIM might have failed to win a single seat and the AAP might have won just five, but they derailed the Congress’s prospects and vote share in numerous seats by splitting their traditional votes.
Below are the four instances:
Dariapur: Gyasuddin Shaikh, Congress sitting MLA defeated by Kaushik Jain of BJP by 5,243 votes. Jain got 61,090 votes, while Gyasuddin able to get 55,847 ballots. While the AAP candidate ate 4164 votes and AIMIM 1,771 votes. In 2017, three Muslim candidates were elected to the Gujarat assembly – MA Pirzada in Wankaner and Gyasuddin Shaikh in Dariapur and incumbent Imran Khedawala. However, Pirzada and Gyasuddin lost this time.
Godhra: Congress candidate Rashmitaben Chauhan defeated by BJP’s CK Raulji. Raulji polled 96,223 votes whereas Chaudhary bagged 61,207 votes. Again, AAP+AIMIM duo ate into the vote share of the Congress 11,827 and 9,508 simultaneously. Interestingly with a heavy Muslim population is Godhra, the person who referred the rapists of Bilkis Bano as “Sanskari Brahmins”, have won.
Limbayat: This seat with huge Muslim and Marathis in Surat gifted to BJP by AAP throwing Congress to 3rd place. While BJP Patil got 95,696 votes, AAP Tayede polled 37,68 and Congress 29,436 votes. The AIMIM ate 5,216 votes.
Danilimda: The Congress won the Muslim and Dalit-dominated Danilimda Assembly segment in Ahmedabad, despite the AAP and the AIMIM cutting into its votes and the BJP putting up a strong fight. Sitting Congress MLA Shailesh Parmar won by defeating his nearest rival, BJP’s Nareshbhai Vyas, by a margin of 13,525 votes.
Jamalpur-Khadia: The Congress’s Imran Khedawala got a third consecutive term, but with a reduced mandate of 58,487 votes, down from 75,000 in 2017. AIMIM’s state president Sabir Kabliwala bagged 15,677 votes and the AAP 5,887 in the constituency in Ahmedabad district.
Bapunagar: Sitting Congress MLA Himmatsinh Patel lost to BJP’s Dineshsinh Kushwaha by a margin of 12,070 votes. AAP and Samajwadi Party’s (SP) Muslim candidates made the difference in margin between the Congress and the BJP. The AAP and the SP polled 6,384 and 3,671 votes, respectively.
In the 2022 Assembly polls, traditional political parties fielded very few Muslim candidates in Gujarat, which has a 182-member Assembly. The Congress had fielded six Muslim candidates, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP gave tickets to three members of the minority community, while AIMIM contested on 13 seats.
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