Election results to determine market moves

Mumbai: Exit polls along with the final verdict of the 2019 general elections will keep the equity investors on tenterhooks in the coming week, experts said.

Accordingly, the seven-phase long 2019 general elections will conclude on Sunday. Subsequently, exit polls will be released with the final results being announced on May 23.

“Now investors are closely eyeing exit polls, which is scheduled on 19th May. And this may lead to volatility during the week starting May 20,” said D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments and Advisors.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services: “After many days of consolidation, Nifty has bounced back from a low of 11,100 which seems to be an intermediate support for the market.”

“However, next week is eventful given exit polls and final verdict. Market is likely to be indecisive till final outcome is known, while extension of volatility cannot be ruled out.”

Apart from election related action, global trade and middle east tensions will be other major drivers for the market.

Last week, the pre-election rally in domestic market was cut short by escalation in trade tensions between US and China along with mixed Q4 results and expectation of consumption slowdown.

Besides global tensions, the ongoing results season will play an important role in determining the equity indices’ movement.

Companies like Bharat Forge, Glaxosmithkline Pharma, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Tata Motors, DLF, Jindal Steel and Power, BEML, India Cements and NTPC are expected to announce their Q4 earning results next week.

On the currency front, the Indian currency last week deprecated by 31 paise to close at 70.23 against the US dollar from its previous week’s close at 69.92 per greenback.

“Next week is a make or break on account of domestic elections exit polls and actual results… markets are factoring a BJP led coalition coming to power, any different result can be a big disappointment. A positive outcome may lead to a moderate rally in markets,” said Sajal Gupta, Head Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.

“Expect the rupee to trade between 69.20 to 70.80.”

In terms of technical charts, the NSE Nifty could head towards the next major supports of 11,227-11,180 points in the coming week.

“Technically, with the Nifty reversing the recent uptrend and entering into a new downtrend, the index could now head towards the next major supports of 11,227-11,180 in the coming week,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

“Any pullback rallies could find resistance at 11,358-11,457.”


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