Exit Poll 2019: BJP’s double digits in Bengal, UP forecast contrasting results

NEW DELHI: Most exit polls or poll of polls project Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to return to power at the Centre for a second consecutive term with a clear majority.

And at least five exit polls have predicted that the BJP-led NDA’s number in West Bengal will increase to 11-19 from only two now.

In West Bengal, according to the News18-IPSOS survey, the Trinamool Congress is predicted to win 36-38 seats while the BJP will win three to five seats. Some of the exit polls suggested the Trinamool getting 24 seats, the BJP bagging 16. Republic-CVoter has given the party 29, Times Now-VMR 28, ABP-Nielsen 24, and Sudarshan News 20 seats to the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

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BJP is wanting to make inroads in West Bengal. Since 2011, the saffron had been steadily increasing its vote share in West Bengal. If the exit poll results even if inches past majority, it will be a crushing defeat for the TMC.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC had won 34 seats, with a 39.79% vote share, BJP two seats with a 17.02% vote share, Congress, had won four seats with 9.69% vote share. The CPI(M) had a 22.96% vote share and had won two seats.

While Uttar Pradesh, a key state with maximum number of Lok Sabha seats at 80, the exit poll results forecast contrasting results.

Most exit polls on Sunday predicted that the BJP’s numbers may come down in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls but it would not face a major setback in Uttar Pradesh, where it had registered a spectacular victory by winning 71 out of the total 80 seats in 2014.

Muslims, form a significant 22 per cent of the total population. Jats, account for some 3.2 lakh voters and Yadavs constitutes 15 per cent of the total population and almost 40 per cent of the OBC population.

Despite a 70 per cent Hindu population, as per the 2011 census, victory will not be an easy task for the BJP as the polarisation of Dalit, Muslim and Jat votes may pose a tough challenge.

The caste arithmetic of votes in Uttar Pradesh seems to be making a dent on the BJP’s final tally.

However, some TV channels gave edge to the alliance of the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal over the alliance of BJP and the Apna Dal.

While Times Now predicted that the BJP could win 58 seats along with Apna Dal while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance may get 20 seats and the Congress just 2 seats, India TV predicted that the BJP will suffer losses in but will manage to get 49 seats. It claimed that the opposition alliance may bag 29 seats and the Congress was likely to win only two seats.

India Today predicted a massive majority for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. According to it. the BJP may win 62-68 seats while the alliance of SP-BSP-RLD might win only 10-16 seats. Like others, it too predicted two seats for Congress.

The News 18 survey claimed that yhrr BJP, along with the Apna Dal, may get between 60 to 62 while the SP-BSP-RLD may win between 17 to 19 seats. It also predicted two seats for the Congress.

NDTV’s poll of polls has predicted BJP and Apna Dal winning 46 seats, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance winning 31 seats, and Congress winning three.

However, ABP news predicted that the BJP may face a setback in the state, being curtailed to 33 seats while the SP-BSP-RLD can win 45 seats. The Congress may win three seats.

The Republic-CVOTER exit poll predicted 38 seats for the BJP and Apna Dal and gave 40 seats to the SP-BSP-RLD alliance and two to Congress.

The IANS-CVoter Exit Poll revealed that despite the BJP’s 407 rallies in India’s biggest state, the alliance led by the SP and the BSP seems to be taking away a major chunk of seats from the saffron party.

The alliance (gathbandhan), as per the exit poll, could fetch 40 seats, giving a loss of 31 seats to the BJP.

The BJP(NDA) has been given 38 seats in the exit poll, a figure so low that it can disappoint Prime Minister Narendra Modi who spent most time canvassing in the state.

The Congress, scoring just 2, fails again to show any sign of improving its tally in a state where Priyanka Gandhi Vadra made a much hyped debut by being appointed General Secretary, in charge of Eastern UP.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi (Amethi) and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi(Rae Bareli) are the two possible winners for India’s oldest party in the region dominated by the Nehru-Gandhi family for the past 70 years, according to IANS-CVoter exit poll.

Polling for the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections concluded on Sunday on 59 seats across seven states and one Union Territory in the country. The counting of voting will begin on May 23.

With agency inputs

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