Maharashtra Polls: ‘Jai Meem, Jai Bheem’ spill the saffron beans

By Zahed Farooqui

  • As much as 38 seats where the Dalit-Muslim vote appears to have switched from the Congress, NCP.
  • VBA kept Dalits ‘vanchit’ from forming secular government?
  • Religious polarization by co-called Muslim leaders work in favour of BJP/Shivsena.

Even as eight days passed after results of Maharashtra Assembly elections and as the talks of President’s rule wandering in the state if the new government is not in place by November 7, it looks uncertain that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena are set to form the government in Maharashtra for a second term.

The parties are to be blamed for this uncertainty are the one who strategically spoils the game for secular parties. 

MS Education Academy

Vote Katua

The term ‘Vote katua’ is generally used for those parties whose votes may not result in their win but may tilt the power in favour of one of the two main alliances.

Though the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar-led contested over 250 seats and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen led by Owaisi contested on 44 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly polls. While AIMIM manage to get 2 seats on the other hand not even a single candidate of VBA emerged victorious when the results were declared.

However, the VBA-AIMIM combine ensured religious polarization and glorify casteist politics that led to the defeat of NCP-Congress candidates on about 38 seats, resulting in a victory for BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Among these, in at least 27 seats, which include Nandgaon, Jintur, Akola West, Chalisgaon and Osmanabad, the VBA and AIMIM garnered significantly more votes than the margin between the winning BJP-Sena candidate and NCP or Congress candidate at the second spot.

Kalina Assembly Seat

For instance, in Kalina Assembly Seat Shivsena’s Sanjay Govind Potnis secured 43319 votes against Congress’s George Abraham 38388 votes while AIMIM-VBA combined secured 5616 just crossing the victory margin of 4931 votes. Again in Nandgaon, Shivsena’s Suhas Dwarkanath Kande secured 85275 votes against NCP’s Pankaj Bhujbal’s 71386 while VBA’s Pagare Rajendra collected 13637 votes equating nearly to the victory margin of 13889.  While in Pune Cantonment constituency, the BJP candidate got 52,160 votes compared to Congress’ 47,148, whereas VBA secured 10,026 and AIMIM 6,041 votes.

However, Buldhana, Akot, Balapur, Murtizapur, Washim, Kalamnuri, Aurangabad Central, and Byculla were the constituencies where VBA or AIMIM finished above the opposition’s candidate.

Whatever the analysis say, but one must admit that the saffron wave observed during the Lok Sabha elections gets a big blow in the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls.

Analysis of the election results

A siasat.com analysis of the election results given below:

Assembly Seat Winner (Votes) Runner up (Votes) Victory Margin Divider (Votes)
Chalisgaon BJP (86515) NCP (82228) 4287 VBA (38429)
         
Nandgaon Shiv Sena (85275) NCP (71386) 13889 VBA (13637)
         
Ulhasnagar BJP (43666) NCP (41662) 2004 VBA (5689)
         

Kalina
Shiv Sena (43319) INC(38388) 4931 AIMIM + VBA (5616)
         
Kamthi BJP (118182) INC (107066) 11116 AIMIM + VBA (18946)
         
Nagpur Central BJP (75692) INC (71684) 4008 AIMIM (8565)
         
Pune Cantonment BJP (52160) INC (47148) 5012 AIMIM (6138)

 
       
Shivajinagar BJP (58727) INC (53603) 5124 VBA (10454)
         
Jintur BJP (116913) NCP (113196) 3717 VBA (13172)
         
Daund BJP (103664) NCP (102918) 746 VBA (2633)
         
Khadakwasala BJP (120518) NCP (117923) 2595 VBA (5931)
         
Akola West BJP (73262) INC (70669) 2593 VBA (20687)
         
Sangola SHIV SENA (99464) PWPI (98696) 768 AIMIM (979)
         
Chandivali SHIV SENA (85879) INC (85470) 409 AIMIM (1167)
         
Nanded North SHIV SENA (62884) INC (50778) 12106 AIMIM (41892)
         
Paithan SHIV SENA (83403) NCP (69264) 14139 AIMIM (17212)
         
Kurla SHIV SENA (55049) NCP (34036) 21013 AIMIM (17349)
         
Osmanabad Shiv Sena (87488) NCP (74021) 13467 VBA (15755)
         
Nagpur South BJP (84339) INC (80326) 4013 VBA (5583)
         
Chikhli BJP (93515) INC (86705) 6810 VBA (9661)
         
Khamgaon BJP (90757) INC (73789) 16968 VBA (25957)
         
Dhamamgaon BJP (90832) INC(81313) 9519 VBA (23779)
         
Wardha BJP (79739) INC (71806) 7933 VBA (6383)
         
Ballarpur BJP (86002) INC (52762) 33240 VBA (39958)
         
Chimur BJP (87146) INC (77394) 9752 VBA (24474)
         
Ralegaon BJP (90823) INC (80948) 9875 VBA (10705)
         
Yavatmal BJP (80425) INC (78172) 2253 VBA (7930)
         
Arni BJP (81599) INC (78446) 3153 VBA (12307)
         
Kinwat BJP (89628) NCP (76356) 13272 VBA (11764)
         
Hingoli BJP (95318) INC (71253) 24065 VBA (19856)
         
Phulambri BJP (106190) INC (90916) 15274 VBA (15252)
         
Nashik East BJP (86304) NCP (74304) 12000 VBA (10096)
         
Chembur Shivsena (53264) INC (34246) 19018 VBA (23178)
         
Georai BJP (99625) NCP (92833) 6792 VBA (8306)
         
Nilanga BJP (97324) INC (65193) 32131 VBA (29819)
         
Tuljapur BJP (99034) INC (75865) 23169 VBA (35383)
         
Malshiras BJP (103507) NCP (100917) 2590 VBA (5538)

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