MUMBAI: The formation of the new government at the Centre along with GDP data and derivatives expiry will dictate the trends of the Indian equity market in the coming week.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which comprehensively won the just-concluded Lok Sabha elections, will soon form the new government and appoint key Union Ministers.
“Now the focus of the market should be on economic growth cycle besides other factors such as fiscal consolidation, infrastructure spending, the inflow of FDI and strong foreign policies,” said D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments & Advisors.
“Investors would also keep a close eye on the progress of monsoon at home, and global factors such as crude oil prices, US Fed and trade tension,” Aggarwal said.
Besides, the new government’s plans for likely fiscal support measures will be eyed by the investors, as a slowdown has become evident in sectors such as automobile, FMCG and aviation.
Vinod Nair, Research Head, Geojit Financial Services, said: “The domestic market is likely to benefit from higher inflows from FIIs on account of political stability and expectation of growth.
“The downside risk of the market will be protected by extension in economic reforms and pick up in earnings from H2FY20 onwards. The risk-taking ability has come back…”
Apart from political developments, crucial data points about the country’s ‘fiscal deficit’, ‘index of eight core industries’ and the Q1 GDP growth rate will be keenly watched by the market participants.
In terms of quarterly results, companies like Abbott India, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Emami, GAIL, Interglobe Aviation, Punjab National Bank, SpiceJet, Sun Pharma, GMR Infra, M&M and Power Finance Corp are expected to announce their fourth quarter (Q4) earnings results in the coming week.
On the currency front, the Indian currency last week strengthened by 30 paise to close at 69.53 against the US dollar from its previous week’s close of 70.23 per greenback.
“Expect rupee to trade between 69.20 and 70.20 range… Expect a rate cut in the coming monetary policy which can lead to some weakness in the currency,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.
On technical charts, the NSE Nifty50’s intermediate trend remains bullish.
“Technically, with the Nifty surging higher this week on the back of the election results and touching new life highs, the intermediate trend remains firmly up,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
“Further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate highs of 12,041 are taken out. Crucial supports are at 11,591,” Jasani added.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org)