New Delhi: With Lok Sabha Elections dates already out in phases what’s the catch in a phase?
In a large state like UP, the multi-phase electoral exercise does bring a huge winning chance and BJP seems to be having the upper hand with a promising vote share from this state.
Speaking of 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the elections will be held in seven phases and constituencies bordering National Capital Delhi will vote first while the last phase will be held mid-May in Chandauli.
The West to East election trend plays a big role in the outcome of the results.
“All other factors remaining constant, it is important at times for a party in multi-phased polls to do well in the first couple of phases,” a senior BJP functionary told.
“Western UP, post the riots, was our stronghold. A good performance here helped us build momentum with each passing phase to outclass our opponents in areas where we have been traditionally weak,” he added.
But in the previous 2012 state assembly polls, the electioneering had started from the east and moved west in a clockwise direction where the regional parties have performed well.
The first couple of phases in the upcoming polls do play a crucial role in determining the trend of minority votes in parts which poll later.
This time around, as the elections travel from west to east, Muslims’ voting pattern in the first couple of phases in places such as Bijnor, Saharanpur and Rohilkhand may set the trend.
This trend could help BJP this time as easterly suits the Samajwadi Party.
But results for BJP and vote share will be different this time as BJP is both at the Centre and State.