By D Surender Naik
The last phase of polling for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2022, one of the country’s politically relevant elections, has been completed on 7 March. Now all eyes are set on 10 March, the day of final verdict of this crucial election. The verdict of this election is going to be pathbreaking for the future course of Indian politics. The Uttar Pradesh election has always assumed high political relevance in Indian politics. The high political relevance can be attributed to a number of factors like huge population, vast geography and a greater number of Lok Sabha seats in Parliament from Uttar Pradesh and etc. This is the reason why- it is said that “road to Delhi goes via Uttar Pradesh”. Narendra Modi’s decision to contest from Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency in 2014 and 2019 general elections is case in point. Most of the political analysts are keeping cards close to their chest vis-à-vis the outcome of 2022 election for Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly.
The tremendous electoral performance by BJP in 2014 general election, 2017 UP assembly election and 2019 general election in the state of Uttar Pradesh coupled with the BJP led alliance’s formation of government in Bihar in the aftermath of a hardly fought election in 2020, has made most of the political observers to be tightlipped on the final outcome of the 2022 UP election. The repeated victories by BJP, especially in Uttar Pradesh earned it an epithet of ‘election machine’. On top of it, a substantial section of mainstream media is working as a media cell of BJP and leaving no stone unturned to create perceptions like ‘BJP under Narendra Modi is invincible’ and ‘BJP will come to power, come what may’. The same perception is also carried out on all social media platforms by BJP’s IT Cell. BJP is overwhelmingly dominant on all social media platforms, where its IT Cell carries out aggressive propaganda to discredit all opposition parties.
The successful electoral track record of BJP and its dominance on all social media platforms may be making all political analysts bit reluctant about predicting the final outcome of the Uttar Pradesh election but it is certainly not disheartening the voter on the ground who wants to vote according to his or her conscience. Leaving aside the rosy picture presented by pliant media in favour of ruling party in Uttar Pradesh; if we go by the mood on the ground, it can be conveniently said that there is a strong undercurrent against the Adityanath led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh. Well, how much of that translates into a vote against BJP can only be known on 10 March.
The BJP and its top brass have completely relied on their time tested and proven strategy of polarization and for this purpose Prime Minister chose Samajwadi Party as the main subject of his criticism. With no less than Prime Minister himself, having chosen Samajwadi Party as the main subject of his criticism, turned the election into a bipolar contest between BJP and SP. In his election addresses, Prime Minister repeatedly equated Samajwadi Party with terrorists and mafia. It is no secret that under RSS-BJP’s scheme of things all terrorists come from a particular minority religious group, to be specific – Muslims. Prime Minister also referred to the dynastic politics of SP in an interview to ANI and in his election rallies. Chief Minister Adityanath also did not lag behind when it comes to polarizing the electorate. He said that this election was about Ali vs Bajrang Bali and 80 vs 20, implying the population percentage of Hindus and Muslims in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, opposition leaders Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati have reminded people of BJP’s failure to fulfill the promises it made to the electorate. Especially Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav endeavored to portray BJP as a party that deceits and lies. They were aggressively trying to convince the electorate in their electoral speeches, that BJP was good at lying and selling dreams to people. Rhetoric from both sides apart, if we look at the vote share of various political parties in the 2017 UP assembly election and try to decode them, maybe we will arrive at some broader conclusions.
In the last assembly election of 2017, BJP got the vote share of 39.67% from the valid votes polled, SP got the vote share of 21.82% from the valid votes polled, BSP got the vote share of 22.23% from the valid votes polled and Congress got the vote share of 6.25% from the valid votes polled. The key to BJP’s quantum leap in its vote share of 15% in 2012 assembly election to thumping vote share of 39.67% in 2017 assembly election can be explained through its well planned and executed strategy of polarization on both religious and caste lines. RSS and BJP specialize in the art of polarization not only on religious lines but also on caste lines. In the last assembly election of 2017, the BJP and RSS carried out an aggressive propaganda and portrayed SP as the party of only ‘Yadavs’ which does not care about the interests of non-Yadav OBCs. This narrative struck a chord with non-Yadav OBCs who in turn voted largely for BJP. The BJP and RSS combine also polarized Jatav and non-Jatav Dalits through their propaganda machinery which resulted in the split of Jatav and non-Jatav votes to the advantage of BJP. Moreover, the Muslims who are known for their tendency to vote ‘en masse’ either in favour or against a party, also got confused and ended up dividing their votes between BSP and SP. BSP’s massive Muslim outreach push by giving 97 seats to Muslims in the last assembly election led to the confusion and division of Muslim vote which played out to the advantage of BJP. Such a largescale drifting of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits to BJP’s fold could not have taken place, but for the leadership of Narendra Modi who portrayed himself as an OBC and tea vendor. Non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits had huge expectations from BJP led by Narendra Modi. In fact, Narendra Modi effected a huge image makeover of BJP – which was earlier known as Brahmin-Baniya Party, now seen as the party of poor and marginalized sections. All aforesaid factors played a significant role in thumping mandate in favour of BJP in 2017.
Between 2017 and now, much water has been flown. UP election 2022, has been held in the backdrop of prolonged Anti-CAA protests, prolonged COVID mismanagement and prolonged protests by Farmers over farm laws. However, no opposition party had raised these issues seriously. Be it the issue of CAA, Farm laws or COVID-19 – all of them cumulatively had inflicted enormous and multi-dimensional suffering on the people in general and Bahujan communities in particular. This time round, there has been a consolidation of anti-BJP vote which will benefit SP. However, during the last five years SP did not play a role of credible opposition party. It did not fight against the government over many crucial public issues. Despite all of this, a substantial chunk of non-Yadav OBCs, non-Jatav Dalits and almost undivided Muslims may have voted in favour of SP, as it was seen as a potential challenger to BJP in a neck-to-neck contest.
Adityanath led BJP government could not live up to the expectations of the social groups such as non-Yadav OBCs & non-Jatav Dalits who stood behind BJP in three consecutive elections held in 2014,2017 and 2019. They felt that, they were let down by BJP. There are sufficient reasons to believe so. The policy of reservation, lifeline of SC, ST & OBCs, was not implemented properly in the last five years of BJP rule. Every protest against government was brutally suppressed. In the name of encounters, only petty criminals from SC, OBC and Minority communities, who were on bail, have been killed. SC and OBC ministers were not given autonomy in their respective departmental affairs. Three OBC ministers Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chouhan and Dharam Singh Saini resigned in the runup to the UP election 2022, levelled allegations, on their own government of which they were part, that OBCs were neglected and discriminated during BJP rule. In addition to these reasons, the issues like Old Pension Scheme, unemployment, anti-farm laws, inflation, appeasement of ‘thakurs’, the caste of Chief Minister Adityanath, and the menace of stray cattle may take a toll on Adityanath government. On the basis of palpable anger and disenchantment against BJP among OBC caste groups like Rajbhars, Nonia Chouhan, Kurmis, Mauryas, Gurjars, Sainis along with sizeable chunk of Jats in western Uttar Pradesh, it can be said that they may have voted in the manner in which BJP’s prospects of winning are bound to be dented. Adding to this, Akhilesh Yadav made social alliances with the small parties, each representing a particular non-Yadav OBC caste. Akhilesh Yadav highlighted the issues related to Dalits and OBCs such as the need to protect Constitution, reservation and also emphasized on the need to have caste census. He repeatedly gave calls on the need for both Ambedkarites and Lohiyaites to come together to take on RSS-BJP combine. But all his efforts to take on BJP began only after the announcement of Model Code of Conduct on 8 January. Even in such a short span of time, SP emerged as the strong challenger for the BJP because of the fact that a substantial chunk of anti-BJP voters stood by it.
The anti-BJP voting pattern can also be further understood through the statistics of last assembly election 2017. The vote share of SP was 21.82% in the 2017 assembly election, but the vote share in 311 seats it contested was 28.32%. If the vote share of SP in the 311 contested seats is extrapolated to remaining 92 seats, the vote share of SP would have been around 28-29%. In that case the difference between the vote share of BJP and SP would have been reduced from whopping 17.85% to around 11-12%. Therefore, it means, if SP manages to wean away 6-7% vote share from BJP, the SP can easily form the government with comfortable majority. As per the electoral data, in a tight bipolar contest even 3-4% difference in vote share can create wonders for either party. Given the strong sense of undercurrent against Adityanath led BJP government, it seems SP will easily get the swing vote. Quantifying the winning seats for SP or any other party could be tricky at this stage. But looking at the overall situation, with clear precision it can be said that, it is advantage SP.
In a way, this election has been the fight between two opposite ideological frameworks represented by BJP and SP. On the one hand there was Hindu-Muslim narrative aimed at mobilizing all Hindus in favour of BJP and on the other hand there was counter mobilization of all Bahujans in favour of SP. This can be summarized as ‘Kamandal vs Mandal’. Between these two ideological poles, there was a voter who voted tactically and going to surprise everyone. Voters are adopting cautious approach while speaking about their voting preferences. They are either silent or not speaking their mind and heart. What they are saying about their vote may not be the case in reality. Substantial chunk of Indian voters has evolved into tactical and mature voters, a sign for a better Democracy. A big takeaway of this election has been that ‘silent revolution can be brought by tactical voting’.
D Surender Naik teaches Political Science. His email id is naikbhai.india@gmail.com