Stay Home Stay Safe:‘Telangana yet to see the worst of Covid-19’

Hyderabad: If the prediction of a study is to be believed, Telangana is yet to see the worst of Covid-19 pandemic.

Researchers from Homi Bhabha National Institute (HBNI) have developed a model which predicts when the number of active cases might peak and when would the pandemic come to an end in the State as well as in the entire country.

‘COV-IND Predictor’ a real time application developed by the researchers of HBNI is publicly available in the format of a simple Google sheet. According to the Indian Express, the app, which is based on a mathematical model, automatically syncs with the latest data from Covid-19 dashboard on a daily basis and updates the predictions real-time.

The report added that based on the number of Covid-19 cases recorded in the state till June 6, the model predicts that Telangana will experience the worst case scenario next month, to be precise on July 12, when it would be dealing with a whopping 2,977 active Covid-19 cases.

The study predicts that the state will be free of virus by December 2020 — around December 27 to be exact. By this date, the tally would reach at 33,746 with around 1,800 active cases.

The HBNI model prediction came true till date as it had predicted that Telangana would be recording 1,756 active Covid-19 cases by June 6 and a cumulative total of 3,476 cases.  This is very close to the actual numbers of 1,663 active cases and 3,496 total cases.

On the national level, the HBNI model predicted that India would be experiencing the worst of Covid-19 cases in July when the number of active cases will be around 1.7 lakh. It noted that the end time of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country would be in January 2021, by which time the country would have most likely have recorded over 13.1 lakh cases.

The model was developed by Dr Balvinder Kaur Sapra and Prof Binod Kumar Sahoo of the Homi Bhabha National Institute (HBNI). HBNI is a deemed university aided by Department of Atomic Energy.