By Kulsum Mustafa
Registering a marked dip from the 2017 polling percentage, Uttar Pradesh appears to have polled very cautiously in the first of the seven phased assembly polls on Thursday. The 58 constituencies, spread over eleven districts in western UP, polled 60 percent, four percent lower than the 64 percent it had polled in these constituencies in the last elections. The second phase of polling in western UP is slated for 14th February.
Out of the 403 seats in the state, 113, falls in western UP. The seats in this region have a high concentration of Jats, Dalits, and Muslims and thus provide a litmus test to how the farmers and caste calculations will work in the rest of UP. Though Jats constitute less than two percent of the state’s population, the community’s concentration in some parts of western UP is as high as 18 percent. The same is the case with Dalits and Muslims. In many constituencies in western UP, their population is almost five times their number in other parts of the state.
In the last assembly polls, BJP had succeeded in drumming up its Hindutva card well. In a highly polarized contest, BJP had secured 53 seats in the first phase. The party created history by winning 91 seats in the first two phases in Western UP alone. Samajwadi Party got just 17 and came a poor second.
This time apparently the wind here is not blowing the BJP way. The over one year-long farmers’ agitation, deaths of over 700 farmers during the stir, CAA protests, and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance are issues that are playing heavily against the BJP. Added to this is the high inflation and also unemployment rate in the region that has made housewives and youth angry, There is also the fear that the ‘repealed anti- farmers laws’ may be brought back if the BJP returns to power. The anti-incumbency factors are weighing heavily against the BJP.
SP-RLD alliance
The SP-RLD alliance is banking heavily on Jat-Muslim unity as well as on the anti-BJP sentiments among the farmers. It is confident that Muslim voters will stay with the SP-RLD combine this time too.
Playing its card the BJP is using its central “Double engine” power to inject all its political force in the UP elections. The party which got 50 percent Jat votes in 2017 is this year banking on counter polarization among OBC and also communal votes. Through its strong Hindutva agenda and the 20-80 call, it hopes to get a big chunk of these votes. BJP is frightening the non-Muslims by instigating in them a fear that the SP-RLD combine will take away many of their rights. It warns them about Akhilesh’s pro-Muslim stance during the 2013 riots. His Muslim bent will warn the BJP to force them to migrate from areas where Muslims are in majority.
This time the BJP has gone an extra mile to woo the farmers, Upper caste and the Jats in different ways. Its central and state leaders, including the Prime Minister, have held rallies, both physical and virtual in the region, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP’s national president Nadda and other Central ministers have held special parleys with the Jat leaders, Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) and Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) coupled with intensive doing door to door contacts with the people.
Two court orders
Amidst all these hectic activities from all sides, something happened that is being viewed as unique, unexpected, and totally well-timed, favoring the ruling party. These are the two court orders which happened just a few hours after polling got underway on Thursday. These orders are said to have injected a new dimension to the polling scenario and their impact is said to have long lasting effects. While the first was the order granting bail to Ashish Mishra, prime accused in Lakhimpur Kheri October 3, farmers killing case, the second was the Karnataka High Court order on hijab in women colleges.
Ashish, is a Brahmin, he is also the son of Union minister, Ajay Mishra ‘Teni’. The relief to him by the Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court in the case in which eight people, including four farmers, were killed during protests has created a lot of flak and raised many eyebrows. A special investigation team (SIT) had filed a 5000-page charge sheet which included charges of murder and criminal conspiracy. Opponents of BJP are reading meaning into this bail and also its timing. They feel that this move will motivate the high caste and also and also act as a catalyst to polarize votes in favor of the BJP. They argue that the fact that despite all efforts the SP jailed leaders Mohd Azam Khan who is contesting from Rampur and Nahid Hasan who is contesting from Kairana have not been granted bail.
The Karnataka H C passed an order to reopen colleges with uniform without religious dress. The second order was on the incident which happened hundreds of kms from the polling site but it has left its impact on the minority in poll-bound UP.
This decision was preceded by a video going viral of a Burqa clad Muskaan Khan attempting to enter her college premises. She is shown being obstructed by boys clad in saffron scarves. The boys heckle and obstruct her, chanting Jai Siya Ram slogans. An agitated but determined Muskaan counters them with chants of “Allah ho Akbar.
The social cites are full of pro and against posts on this incident that has generated a lot of heat on this. The Court order has lead to the situation getting highly volatile and the UP politicians have used it to help raise their vote bank.
While the BJP has through its HIndutava agenda hailed the court order and termed it right as it denounces the violation of the rules and regulation of the Institutions, Muslim leaders have used it for rabble-rousing and called it unjust and praised the brave act of the girl and denounced the college for denying the students their fundamental Rights guaranteed under the Constitution of India. The Samajwadi Party, which is claims to be a secular political outfit with a tilt towards the OBC and minority appeasements has however kept a stoic silence over the incident and have in fact asked all its spokesperson to keep silent on this issue.
Progressive Muslims have expressed concern and have cautioned against letting this be allowed to snowball as it will come in the way of the progress of Muslim girls and their education.
There are many like Ghazala Wahab, executive editor, FORCE magazine, who while supporting the brave act of Muskaan and lauding those who had the courage to speak out against not being allowed with Hijab inside educational institutions have also issued a warning to not be carried away and fall into the trap of those forces within and outside the community who do not wish to see women progress.
“My problem is with wannabe Muslim leaders who have once again reduced the question of Muslim rights & dignity to identity. It’s a throwback to the dark past .. we’ve been running to stay in the same place for 75 years,” said Ghazala, adding that Muslim students cannot afford the luxury of narreybaazi (slogan Shouting slogans) unless they are seeking a career in politics,” She would rather they pursue their studies and progress.
| Posted by Sameer Khan | 
