West Bengal: Almost all exit polls predict hat-trick for Mamata Banerjee

New Delhi: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to retain power in West Bengal, all exit polls, except two, indicated after the month-long, eight-phase Assembly polls ended on Thursday.

Apart from the Axis My India-India Today and the Republic-CNX exit polls, which gave the BJP an edge in the battleground state, all other surveys, including the CVoter Exit Poll for Times Now/ABP News, forecast a third victory for the Trinamool, putting it ahead in the 294-member Assembly.

However, the survey of Axis My India-India Today, whose predictions in the 2019 Assembly elections had shown the immense BJP gains in the state, again gave the party its first-ever victory in the state polls. According to it, the BJP could end with 134-160 seats, the Trinamool with 130-156, and the Left with a mere 0-2. On the other hand, the P-MARQ survey gave the Trinamool 152-172 seats, the BJP 112-132, and the Left 10-20. The NewsX-Polstrat gave the Trinamool 152-162 and the BJP 111-125 seats.

MS Education Academy
PartySeats
BJP 134-160
Trinamool 130-156
Left 0-2
Axis My India-India Today
PartySeats
Trinamool 152-172
BJP 112-132
Left 10-20
P-MARQ survey

The ETG Research poll gave Banerjee’s party 164-176, the BJP 105-115 and the Left 10-15 seats. CVoter gave Trinamool 152-164, the BJP 109-121 and the Left 14-25.

PartySeats
Trinamool 164-176
BJP 105-115
Left 10-15
ETG Research
PartySeats
Trinamool 152-164
BJP 109-121
Left 14-25
CVoter

The Republic-CNX poll, however, showed a BJP victory, giving it 138-148 seats, with 128-132 for the Trinamool and 11-21 for the Left.

PartySeats
BJP 138-148
Trinamool 128-132
Left 11-21
Republic-CNX poll

After the eight-phased West Bengal assembly election that ended today, BJP may not form government in the state, its seat and vote shares are likely to increase.

The counting of votes is scheduled to take place on May 2.

What Exit Polls predict about assembly elections in other states?

In Assam, India Today-Axis My India predicted 75-85 seats for the BJP-led combine in the 126-member assembly and 40-50 to the Congress-led opposition.

Today’s Chanakya predicted 61-79 seats for the saffron alliance and 47-65 for the Congress-led opposition in Assam. Republic-CNX gave the ruling saffron alliance 74-84 and the opposition 40-50, while Times Now-C Voter gave them 65 and 59 seats respectively.

PollsterCongress+BJP+
India Today-Axis My India 40-50 75-85
Today’s Chanakya 47-65 61-79
Republic-CNX 40-50 74-84
Times Now-C Voter 5965
Assam

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan may defy the norm in his state of the two main alliances alternating in power by leading the CPI(M)-led alliance to another spell in power, going by various exit polls.

Axis My India predicted a big win for the LDF by projecting 104 seats for it in the 140-member assembly and predicting only 20-36 seats to the Congress-led UDF.

Today’s Chanakya forecast 93-111 seats for the LDF and 26-44 for the UDF in 140-member strong Kerala assembly. CNX predicted a closer fight but still projected a majority of 72-80 seats for the ruling alliance against 54-64 for the opposition.

Pollster LDF UDF
India Today-Axis My India 104 20-36
Today’s Chanakya 93-111 26-44
CNX 72-80 54-64
Kerala

In another key southern state, Tamil Nadu, Axis My India and CNX forecast a big win for the DMK-led alliance that also includes the Congress. They gave 175-195 and 160-170 respectively for the DMK-Congress-led alliance in the 234-member assembly. The AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP, was projected to get 38-54 and 58-68 respectively.

Today’s Chanakya predicted 164-186 seats for the DMK combine and 46-68 for the incumbent AIADMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Pollster DMK AIADMK
Axis My India 175-195 38-54
Today’s Chanakya 164-186 46-68
CNX 160-170 58-68
Tamil Nadu

With inputs from agencies

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