New Delhi: The housing market in the top seven cities is likely to attain a new peak by 2023, when housing sales are estimated to cross 3.17 lakh units and new launches by 2.62 lakh units during the year, according to a report by Anarock Property Consultants.
It noted that the unprecedented rise in homeownership sentiment, faster adoption of technology and digital marketing, and innovative business practices have served to soften the overall impact of Covid-19 on the Indian residential sector.
Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Bengaluru are all set to lead from the front with maximum housing sales and new launches in 2023. Of the total estimated housing sales and new launches in 2023:
MMR is likely to comprise a 28 per cent share of total sales and nearly 30 per cent of new launches. Bengaluru is estimated to have a 20 per cent share of homes sold and a 17 per cent share of units launched.
NCR may comprise an 18 per cent share of sales and 15 per cent of new launches.
The report noted that 2021 is expected to fare better than 2020, but it is unlikely to reach the levels of 2019, the most recent peak year.
Anuj Puri, Chairman of Anarock Property Consultants said: “The residential sector was showing healthy year-on-year growth from 2017 until the latest peak year of 2019, but this trajectory was derailed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Otherwise, 2020 was expected to be a watershed year for the housing sector.”
“While the second half of the year did showcase the remarkable resilience of Indian residential real estate, a new bottom for the sector was created in 2020 with housing sales plunging to nearly 1.38 lakh units while new launches dropped to 1.28 lakh units. 2020 is not a year that the industry is likely to forget very soon,” he said.
Encouragingly, the ongoing trend of sales exceeding supply is likely to continue and 2021 is expected to witness an increase of 35 per cent in housing launches and a 30 per cent increase in sales over the previous year. However, against the peak year of 2019, supply and sales may be lower by 28 per cent and 31 per cent respectively.
Noting that the trend of demand remaining buoyant can be attributed to several factors, Puri said: “These include but are not limited to sustained low interest rates, an overall improvement on the job market, resumed economic activity and sustained stock market growth, various government interventions to combat the pandemic’s deleterious effects, and an increasing desire to own physical assets during times of unprecedented uncertainty.”
With the vaccination drive gaining significant momentum and the spread of Covid-19 under better control for now, 2023 will very likely emerge as the new peak year that breaches 2019 levels with supply that year growing by 11 per cent and sales by 22 per cent over 2019, he added.
A new peak in 2023 notwithstanding, India is unlikely to see the levels of supply and sales witnessed in 2014 anytime soon, the report noted.