Inflation trend, US Fed rate decision to set course for equities

Mumbai: Macro-economic domestic inflation data points coupled with FIIs’ flow direction and the rate decision of the US Fed will determine the key equity indices’ moves during the upcoming week.

Besides, investors will look out for other major factors like global oil prices along with progression of Covid-19’s Omicron variant.

Last week, both the key indices – S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 – gained the most in eight weeks on a relief rally from the overwhelming fears about Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

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However, the bounce ran out of energy towards the end of the week and just ahead of the US inflation data.

“The Nifty has bounced up from intra day lows and closed towards the day and week high. Advance decline ratio also remains firmly in the positive. 17,613-17,700 is the next resistance band for the Nifty,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

“Nifty can continue the upward momentum in the initial part of the coming week unless we have a negative surprise from US inflation data, having said that building on gains at the same pace may be difficult.”

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services: “Investors on Monday would react to the release of US inflation data over the weekend which is expected to come at elevated levels and could strengthen Fed’s tapering plans and accelerate interest rate hikes.”

“Thus Fed’s MPC due next week would be the key event to watch out for which could provide direction to the market.”

Besides, Khemka cited that despite uncertainty, the correction has made valuations comfortable and many stocks are available at attractive levels.

Next week, India will release the consumer price index or retail inflation figures as well as wholesale price numbers.

“The market trend in the coming week will be determined by the domestic and US November inflation data,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

“Ahead of the Fed meeting, global investors are keenly awaiting the US inflation data in order to gauge the Fed’s decision on rolling back economic stimulus. The market is expecting both domestic and US inflation to be higher than its previous month levels.”

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