BY ARUN KEJRIWAL
Markets continued their volatile movement in the week gone by and manged to close with gains for the week. BSESENSEX gained 433.68 points or 1.15 per cent to close at 38,040.57 points while NIFTY gained 140.60 points or 1.27 per cent to close at 11,214.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.42 per cent , 162 per cent and 1.83 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 3.34 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 4.97 per cent. The midcap and Smallcap indices were helped in no small way by the relaxation in circuit filters by the exchanges on Friday where over 600 stocks were positively impacted. This would increase the volatility in this segment. The benchmark indices in the last week gained on two days, lost on one and were sideways on the remaining two days.
The Indian Rupee ended lower by 12 paisa or 0.16 per cent to close at Rs 74.93 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones had a stellar week and gained a massive 1005.16 points or 3.80 per cent to close at 27443.48 points.
RBI in its monetary policy review meet kept interest rates unchanged and stopped the series of rate cuts that it had been doing. The meeting also ended speculation on extending the moratorium which would end in August. It has however announced that lenders would be allowed to implement a one-time loan restructuring plan without any change in ownership, while classifying such exposure as standard assets. This would provide relief to borrowers whose cash flows have been strained due to the pandemic and the resultant lockdown effect.
Shares/units of Mindspace Business Parks listed on the bourses on Friday and gained 10.50 per cent. REITS were issued at Rs 275 and closed the day at Rs 303.87. The issue had received excellent response and was subscribed 13 times. On listing day, the delivery percentage was as high as 88 per cent, indicating that only delivery trades were initiated. This is an investment instrument and would attract investors looking to diversify from liquid investments including fixed deposits as the yield is better and they are currently largely tax free in nature.
Shares of Yes Bank were big gainers during the week and gained Rs 2.19 or 18.33 per cent to close at Rs 14.14. Readers would recall that the bank had raised Rs 15,000 cr through a follow-on offer at Rs 12. There could be more movement possible in the stock but going forward it would become an actively traded stock simply because it would have such a large floating stock available.
On the Covid-19 front, the number of affected people globally has increased to 198.11 lakh with 7.29 lakh deaths and 127.26 lakh people having recovered. In India we have 21.56 lakh affected people with 43,488 deaths and 14.81 lakh people having recovered. Compared to the previous week, the world has seen 17.85 lakh new patients, 40,679 deaths and 13.91 lakh people having recovered. In India we had 4.02 lakh new patients, 6,073 deaths and 3.33 lakh people recovering. The number of new patients in India has been increasing quite significantly and it is a cause of worry. It can be attributed to the increased testing that is happening in many places and also the increased unlocking of restrictions.
Markets are seeing a spate of fund raising where corporates and promoters are increasing their stake in the companies through fund raising and also improving the balance sheet. Rights issue or QIP issues are happening literally dime a dozen and issues get subscribed almost instantaneously. In the last week for example we saw Axis Bank and HDFC Limited raise large amounts of money. This highlights the fact that investment is happening in the market not only through secondary market but also through primary markets. Fund raising has become relatively easier and is happening in all earnestness. Liquidity is available and the system is flush with money. FPI’s with liquidity from the US are more than willing to invest in India even though markets worldwide are back to pre-Covid-19 levels of March 2020.
Markets are poised at levels which are marginally lower than the highs made in the previous week of 38,617 on BSESENSEX and 11,341 on NIFTY. While these levels would act as strong resistances until they are crossed and taken out, the present levels could see volatile and sharp two-sided moves resulting in trading opportunities. A 500-600 point downwards on BSESENSEX and 150-200 points on NIFTY could act as strong supports on the downside. This could be a trading range for the week ahead. Having seen a strong rally over the last three to four months, its high time that markets consolidate before deciding on the next leg of its journey. Use sharp movement to your advantage and refrain from keeping overnight positions.
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)