Hyderabad: Going against most poll predictions, political consulting firm Politique Marquer (P-Marq) has predicted simple majority wins for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front in Kerala with regard to upcoming elections in the two states.
Unlike most surveys which have predicted a win for the Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), P-Marq’s survey has said that the TMC will fall short by a few dozen seats, while the BJP will manage to just cross the magic 147 figure, which is required to form the government in West Bengal.
Interestingly, P-Marq’s survey states that the TMC will get between 42-44% of the total vote share, while the BJP will get between 41-43%. As far as the Congress-Left alliance in West Bengal is concerned, the consulting firm has predicted a paltry 11 to 15 seats for it, with a 12-14% vote share. The upcoming election in the eastern state is witnessing fiery campaigns between the TMC and the BJP.
The survey by the firm also put Banerjee high on the anti-incumbency index at 7.2 out of 10, which it said is usually “more than enough to overthrow an incumbent government”. It also pointed out that in direct contests where BJP is the main challenger, the saffron party has not lost an assembly election to a party that has been in power for a decade since 2013.
“Whether Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan or Maharashtra, BJP has usually won against an incumbent government and never lost against a 2-term incumbent government,” said P-Marq in a statement on Thursday.
In Kerala, which has been historically alternating between the Congress and Left governments, CPM leader and incumbent chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s popularity, coupled with his government’s deft handling of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are believed to be the reasons behind his expected comeback. As far as the BJP is concerned in Kerala, which also roped in ‘metro man’ E. Sreedharan, P-Marq had predicted that the saffron party will win zero to twos seats (at best).
Accurate prediction of Bihar election
It may be noted that P-Marq, unlike most exist polls which had given an edge to the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-Left alliance in 2020, had accurately predicted a win for the BJP-Janata Dal (United) alliance in the Bihar state election that took place last year.
P-Marq was founded by political consultants Animesh Pandey, and Abbin Theepura, who have worked at I-Pac, headed by well-known poll strategist Prashant Kishore. The firm claims that the uniqueness of their work is in their approach of using sophisticated machine learning algorithms and data analytics typically used in financial markets in addition to traditional surveys for prediction.