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Week ahead would trade with positive bias

Week ahead would trade with positive bias

The week saw markets making some gains and confidence returning. US and China relations too improved, with China taking the first step by agreeing to buy US farm produce and removing the duties that were slapped by them. In reciprocation, US deferred the increase in duties that were to happen. All this leads to hope that the US-China trade dispute would get resolved sooner than later.

The BSE SENSEX gained 403.22 points or 1.09 percent to close at 37,384.99 points, while NIFTY gained 129.70 points or 1.118 percent to close at 11,075.90 points. Gains were recorded on three of the four trading days while they lost on one day. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200, and BSE500 gain 1.35 percent, 1.38 percent, and 1.52 percent, respectively. The BSE MIDCAP gained 2.25 percent while BSE SMALLCAP performed even better and gained 3.32 percent.

The Indian Rupee gained 80 paise or 1.12 percent, to close at Rs 70.92 to the US Dollar. On the back of improvement in sentiment on the US-China front, Dow Jones gained 422.06 points, or 1.58 percent, to close at 27,219.52 points.

BPCL was a star performer on the back of expectations that the government may divest its entire majority holding of 53.29 percent to a strategic partner. This would help the government garner about Rs 47,000 crore at current valuations and help achieve a major part of the 1.05 lakh crore target from divestment in 2019-2020.

Shares of BPCL gained Rs 29.85, or 7.87 percent, to close at Rs 408.90. Sister companies HPCL gained 3.495 while IOC was up 2.52 percent. Further, the government ownership in IOC and HPCL would see it control more than 50 percent of the hydro fuel business.

The Finance Minister held a press conference this time on Saturday and announced measures to help the beleaguered real estate sector and boost exports. A fund of Rs 60,000 crore has been set aside to assist and provide credit to under-construction homes/projects which are not non-performing assets (NPAs or bad loans) nor have gone into insolvency proceedings. A precondition in such projects is that 60 percent of the work be completed.

While one can always complain that more needs to be done or can be done, it is important to appreciate that it is being done.

Strange things are happening in corporate India. Ousted Chairman of C G Power, Gautam Thapar wants a video recording of the proceeds of the board meeting which ousted him. Similarly, a board meeting held by Manpasand Beverages was not intimated to the exchanges and then the outcome also not communicated. Subsequently, there were disputes about the outcome posted by the independent director and the one by the Chairman of the company. The last word on this is yet to be written.

Markets have an upward bias in the week ahead. Support levels which previously existed at the lows of August 23 at 36,102.35 points on the BSE SENSEX, and 10,637.15 points on the NIFTY, have moved to the subsequent higher bottom of September 4 at 36,409.54 points and 10,746.35 points, respectively.

While the breadth of the market has improved as also borne out by the movement in midcap and small-cap stocks, quite a few people believe that the market is ripe to short on every rally. One must remember that FPI selling has abated and they have subscribed to the offer-for-sale (OFS) by Apollo Hospitals and the private insurance companies in the last couple of weeks. There is an appetite for Indian stocks.

Further, many of the beaten-down stocks which are reduced to less than 5 percent of their peak values have seen FPI’s exiting them completely. Some names of such stocks are Spentex Industries, Cox and Kings, Cox and Kings Financial Services, Talwalkars, among others.

The week ahead would trade with a positive bias and selective long positions may be taken. One needs to remember that every rise will be met with skepticism and there would be alternate bouts of buying and selling. This would not be a one-way rise in any case. Use dips to add position and wait for the July-September results due in less than 4 weeks from now. Besides, there could be more announcements from the Finance Minister as well.

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