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Bihar polls: Nitish Kumar can still upset the BJP applecart

In electoral politics, voters play a crucial role. Their support will be key in determining whether Nitish Kumar can secure his tenth term as Chief Minister.

Legacy with women voters

For two decades, Kumar has prioritised women’s issues, resulting in important political reforms. As he approaches what may be his last election, understanding the support of women for him is vital.

Nitish’s health has declined, and he is rarely seen in public, showing signs of confusion in public appearances. This has led prompting the BJP to consider appointing its own chief minister. The future of both JD (U) and Nitish remains uncertain.

While Nitish Kumar may face criticism on various issues in the upcoming polls, his support from women voters continues.

Nitish Kumar’s ban on alcohol has garnered strong support from women, contributing to his prolonged tenure in office. 

In a state where poverty and patriarchy are significant issues, Kumar’s policies have delivered benefits including bicycles, jobs, cash grants, and regulations on an abusive husband’s drinking.

In 2010, Bihar recorded a high turnout of women voters, a trend that has persisted. Kumar has gained strong support from women, thanks to improved law and order, which has made them feel safer and more confident to vote.

Support for Kumar varies by demographic: Upper-caste, non-Yadav OBC, EBC, and Dalit women tend to support the NDA, while Muslim and Yadav women largely favour the Grand Alliance.

In the previous elections, the NDA targeted women voters, winning 60.5 per cent of seats in constituencies with a higher proportion of women than men. Out of the 243 total seats, the NDA secured 72 in female-majority constituencies, while the Mahagathbandhan won 42. This shift in electoral behaviour highlights the growing influence of women in Bihar politics.

One reason is that with the rise of education and empowerment among women, they can significantly influence electoral outcomes, prompting political parties to revise their manifestos to better appeal to them. A primary motivator for voting is the belief that every vote counts.

The upcoming Bihar elections will demonstrate the significant role women voters play in India. Since 1962, the number of women voting has increased. In 1962, 63.3 per cent of men voted, while only 46.6 per cent of women did. By 2014, the difference was down to 1.5 per cent, and in 2019, women even voted more than men by 0.17 per cent. This change is partly due to the education of women since the 1970s, which helped them understand and appreciate their right to vote.

Their influence can be observed in how female voters supported Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar during the elections. Their backing, particularly in rural areas, has been essential for issues such as liq uor bans, reflecting broader societal concerns.

Health and leadership challenges

Nitish Kumar recently provided ₹10,000 to 1.25 crore women and increased social security pensions from ₹400 to ₹1,100 for 11.2 million families. Households also receive 125 units of free electricity per month. Women benefit from a 35 per cent reservation in police jobs and 50 per cent in local government positions, along with low-interest loans through the Jeevika programme.

However, some women who were not included in the beneficiary list have voiced frustration, feeling unfairly excluded.

Kumar has several negative aspects, such as his declining health and diminishing influence within his JD(U) party. There is no number two in his cabinet, as there are no significant leaders.

Additionally, it is not a done deal for him to become the chief minister, as Home Minister Amit Shah stated this week that the elected MLAs will choose the next chief minister. The BJP wants to have its own chief minister, but it lacks strong local leaders. If the NDA wins, Nitish will have to fight for his position, although the BJP has realised it needs him during elections.

Political parties recognise that women voters are essential for electoral success and are responding with cash transfer programmes. These programmes involve direct payments into women’s bank accounts, providing them with financial independence and dignity, and enabling them to cover personal and family expenses. 

Nitish is often underestimated, but he has proven to be essential for the coalition. He bets big on women-centric schemes ahead of Bihar assembly polls.

He has maintained his significance by earning the loyalty of voters and skilfully managing his relationships with various political groups.

Welfare schemes and future prospects

In this election, new leaders are ready to step up, while Nitish Kumar wants to become chief minister for the tenth time. However, younger leaders may struggle to emerge unless Nitish makes room for them. Some think Nitish should step aside gracefully. The BJP and JD(U) each contested 101 seats in the elections, and the results will determine who will be the next chief minister. Nitish led the coalition in the polls, and JD(U) wants him to continue as chief minister. 

This post was last modified on October 20, 2025 8:10 pm

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