Outlook: Election results, global risks to guide equities markets

Mumbai: Geopolitical tensions emanating from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as well as crucial state assembly election results will determine — key equity indices — movements next week.

Besides, macro-economic industrial production data along with the direction of foreign fund flows and global commodities price movements will impact investors’ sentiments.

Notably the defining moment for next week will be the declaration of assembly election results in five states — Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Punjab — on March 10.

“The Assembly election’s exit polls on March 7 and the election outcome on 10th March would be key event closely monitored, while US Fed meeting scheduled on March 15-16 would have a bearing on global economy,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“The recent correction has led to moderation in valuation and the healthy earnings visibility can act as a cushion in an otherwise fragile external situation.”

Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a surge in Brent crude and other commodities’ prices which has invoked inflationary fears.

The trend has accelerated FIIs’ selling in the Indian equity market.

“Consistent selling by FPIs has resulted in all bounces being sold into. Domestic investors also get impacted in terms of sentiments at intervals with advance decline ratio falling deeply in the negative on March 4,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.

“A deeply negative close for the US or European markets on Friday could result in a gap down opening for Indian markets on Monday. 15914-16147 band could provide support to the Nifty in the coming week and a sustainable minor bounce could be seen later as positive news flow is expected to come in from Europe early next week.”

In addition to geopolitical tensions, the domestic market will keep a close watch on BoE and US Fed policy statements.

“Due to war uncertainties, central banks may balance their hawkish policy against expected earlier due to high inflation. It can provide leeway to the market in the short term,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.