Telangana rainfall deficit better than key farm states

Hyderabad: Telangana’s monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 17 percent as of August 21, but the state has still fared better than several of India’s major foodgrain-producing regions this season, according to a Times of India report citing SBI Research.

The state remains within the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s “normal” rainfall band, which covers deficits of up to 19 percent. That leaves Telangana close to slipping into the “deficient” category, making rainfall over the remaining weeks of the monsoon critical for both water availability and the upcoming rabi season.

By comparison, neighbouring Andhra Pradesh has recorded a sharper 39 percent deficit, while Bihar’s shortfall stands at 41 percent. Punjab has a 32 percent deficit, Karnataka 22 percent and Rajasthan 20 percent.

Nationally, rainfall is running 13 percent below normal, with 351 of the country’s 741 districts recording deficient or largely deficient rainfall. Kerala has logged a 24 percent deficit and Assam 23 percent, alongside Karnataka’s 22 percent.

Not all states are struggling. Maharashtra’s deficit stands at 7 percent, Madhya Pradesh’s at 10 percent and Gujarat’s at just 3 percent. West Bengal has actually recorded a 5 percent surplus and Odisha a 2 percent excess.

Outlook weakens further

SBI Research also pointed to a deteriorating monsoon outlook, citing Skymet’s revised 2026 forecast, which cut expected seasonal rainfall to 85 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from an earlier estimate of 94 percent. Skymet now puts the probability of a nationwide drought at 70 percent.

Adding to the concern, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has assessed El Nino conditions as firmly established, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained neutral as of August 16.

SBI Research said El Nino’s impact on kharif output is likely to be limited given satisfactory sowing progress so far, but flagged it as a risk factor for the rabi crop.