With elections coming to a close in West Bengal on Wednesday, April 29, as well as in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, all eyes are now on exit poll predictions, with several predicting a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win in two crucial states and a Congress sweep in one.
Most exit polls have predicted West Bengal to turn saffron, while Assam will continue to remain so.
In Kerala, exit polls indicate a strong Congress comeback, while Tamil Nadu is set to witness a power battle between Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), with actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) expected to play spoilsport.
Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry had a single-phase polling on April 9, while West Bengal voted in two phases – on April 23 and April 29
This time, a good voter turnout was registered in all polling states. Assam recorded 85.91 per cent turnout, while Puducherry registered 91.23 per cent, the highest since Independence.
Tamil Nadu and Kerala logged 85.1 per cent and 78.27 percent turnout.
The first phase of the West Bengal elections on April 23 recorded 92.88 per cent voting across 152 constituencies in 16 districts, and the second phase stands at 91.41 per cent in 142 constituencies.
It should be noted that exit polls are not always accurate, and the actual results will vary. Election results will be declared on May 4
Almost all exit polls for the 294-seat Assembly indicate a thumping BJP win, with the Peoples Pulse being the lone survey to predict a Trinamool Congress (TMC) to retain power.
P-Marq, Praja Poll and Matriz forecast the BJP will cross 148 seats, the magic number to secure a majority to form a government.
People’s Pulse says Mamata Banerjee-led party will retain a majority with BJP to get around 100 seats
| Exit Poll Agency | BJP+ | TMC+ |
|---|---|---|
| Praja Poll | 178-208 | 85-110 |
| P-Marq | 150-175 | 118-138 |
| Matrize | 146-161 | 125-140 |
| Poll Diary | 142-171 | 99-127 |
| Peoples Pulse | 95-110 | 177-187 |
The high-stakes electoral battle in all 126-member Assembly in the Northeastern state is between Congress and the ruling BJP, with many polls predicting the saffron party to cross 64 seats (magic number), with Himanta Biswa Sarma slated to retain his post as chief minister.
According to Axis My India, the BJP is expected to clinch a thumping majority in Assam by bagging 88-100 seats, while Congress is seen trailing at 24-36 seats.
Poll Diary predicts BJP to win 86-121 seats while Congress is seen faring poorly at 15-25 seats.
Matrize Exit polls also place BJP in a commanding position with 85-95 seats and Congress at 25-32 seats.
| Exit Poll Agency | BJP+ | CONGRESS+ | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poll Diary | 86-101 | 15-26 | 0 |
| JVC | 88-101 | 23-33 | AIUDF+ 2-5 |
| Axis My India | 88-100 | 24-36 | 0-3 |
| Janmat Polls | 87-98 | 29-30 | — |
| Peoples Insight | 88-96 | 30-34 | 2-4 |
| Kamakhya Analytics | 85-95 | 26-39 | 0-3 |
| Matrize | 85-95 | 25-32 | 6-12 |
Things are not looking great for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) as anti-incumbency sentiment seems strong amongst the people. Most exit polls suggest that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to cross the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly, a comeback after a decade.
People’s Pulse projects UDF to bag 75–85 seats, PMARQ and Matrize also resonate the same.
Axis My India projects the UDF securing around 44 per cent of the vote, compared with 39 per cent for the LDF, 14 per cent for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and about three per cent for others.
Vote Vibe gave the alliance 70-80 seats, and People’s Insight forecast 66-76 seats.
The BJP-led NDA, while not projected to make significant gains, remains hopeful of improving its presence, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.
Unlike Kerala, anti-incumbency may not work in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, with the DMK-led alliance most likely to return to power in the 234-member Assembly. Exit polls suggest Chief Minister MK Stalin will win a second consecutive term in office.
According to the People’s Pulse exit poll, the DMK-led alliance is projected to win between 125 and 145 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118. The AIADMK-led alliance is likely to secure 65 to 80 seats, while TVK could make a notable debut with 18 to 24 seats.
Axis My India also projected the DMK alliance winning 92–110 seats, with the AIADMK alliance trailing at 22–23 seats and TVK securing 98–120 seats.
P-Marq exit poll predicted the DMK alliance winning 125–145 seats, the AIADMK alliance 65–85 seats, and TVK emerging with a significant 16–26 seats.
The Matrix poll estimated the DMK alliance’s tally between 122 and 132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance could win 87–110 seats. TVK’s performance was pegged at 10–12 seats, with others getting up to six.
| Agency | DMK+ | AIADMK+ | TVK | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People’s Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 18-24 | — |
| Axis My India | 92–110 | 22–23 | 98–120 | — |
| Matrix | 122-132 | 87-110 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
| P-Marq | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
Exit polls for the 30-member Puducherry Assembly have largely projected the All India NR Congress (AINRC)-led NDA alliance retaining power with a comfortable margin. Most surveys placed the alliance well above the majority mark of 16 seats.
Praja Poll projected NRC between 19-25 seats, with Congress-alliance at 6-10 seats, indicating a dominant showing for the ruling alliance.
The Peoples Pulse exit poll has projected the NDA in the lead with a vote share of 34 to 36 per cent. The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) is expected to secure 30 to 32 per cent vote share, while the TVK+NMK alliance is projected at 15 to 17 per cent.
This post was last modified on April 29, 2026 9:19 pm