Middle East

Iran says ceasefire cannot hold without full compliance, Hormuz reopening at risk

Wednesday, April 22, marked the end of day 15 of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, with uncertainty growing over whether diplomacy can hold.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said any ceasefire can only survive if it is fully respected, warning that maritime restrictions, economic pressure and continuing regional hostilities are undermining the truce and threatening the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Wednesday, April 22, marked the end of day 15 of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, with uncertainty growing over whether diplomacy can hold.

In a post on X, Ghalibaf said a “complete ceasefire” would only be meaningful if the maritime blockade ended, what he described as the “hostage-taking of the world’s economy” stopped, and military escalation across multiple fronts was halted. He added that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be impossible while such violations continued.

Trump offers fresh 3–5 day truce window

His remarks came as US President Donald Trump was reported to have offered Iran an additional three to five days of ceasefire to create room for negotiations.

Axios, citing US officials, said Washington hoped the extra time would allow rival centres of power in Tehran to settle internal divisions and prepare a unified response.

Trump had earlier announced an extension of the ceasefire one day before the previously declared two-week pause was due to expire, but did not specify how long it would last.

Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB later rejected reports that Tehran had formally accepted any extension, saying no official Iranian position had been announced.

36–72 hours: Talks may resume in Islamabad

Trump told the New York Post that a second round of talks with Iran could be possible by Friday, April 24, and said a breakthrough may come within 36 to 72 hours.

Global attention has meanwhile shifted to Islamabad, where Pakistani officials are said to be making intensive efforts to arrange fresh negotiations.

A possible round of talks could reportedly involve US Vice President J.D. Vance representing Washington and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf representing Tehran, should both sides agree.

Reuters also quoted a Pakistani official as saying Islamabad was working to overcome disputes between the American and Iranian sides while taking account of sensitivities on both sides.

USD 100 barrier: Oil surges on Hormuz fears

Markets reacted sharply to developments, with Brent crude rising above USD 100 a barrel after reports of gunfire targeting at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices were also supported after US data showed an unexpected decline in fuel inventories.

The Strait remains one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for crude exports, meaning any sustained disruption could hit global supply chains and inflation.

2 paths: US weighs diplomacy and force

The The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is not keen to resume attacks on Iran but remains open to the option.

Axios also quoted a source close to Trump as saying the president wants to avoid using force and end the war, but could return to military action if Iran refuses to participate in talks.

Another US official told Axios there was a complete division inside Iran between negotiators and the military, with neither side able to reach the Supreme Leader.

The official also said the current Secretary General of Iran’s National Security Council lacked the political weight once held by Ali Larijani, while Mohammad Baqer was said to hold influence but not Larijani’s coordinating ability between the Revolutionary Guard and political leadership.

50 pc, 60 pc, two-thirds: Iran military capability assessed

CBS, citing US officials, reported that Iran still possesses more military capability than the White House or Pentagon has publicly acknowledged.
According to the report, around half of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile remained intact when the ceasefire began.

Officials also said about 60 percent of the Revolutionary Guards Navy still existed, including fast attack craft, while roughly two-thirds of the air force remained operational after extensive US-Israeli strikes.

2 ships and sanctions pressure

The US Treasury Secretary said the extension of waivers related to Iranian and Russian oil came after requests from countries facing risk from supply disruption.

The Financial Times reported tracking data showed that two ships Iran said it had seized were anchored near Bandar Sirik.

Lebanon front: Ceasefire contacts continue

Lebanon’s Information Minister told Al Jazeera he had contacted the army and UNIFIL to evacuate journalists stranded in southern Lebanon, holding Israel responsible for their safety.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said no party would be allowed to obstruct security measures or undermine national stability.

He described civil peace as a red line and said contacts were under way to extend the ceasefire.

Aoun added that negotiations were based on halting Israeli attacks, securing withdrawal, returning prisoners and deploying the Lebanese army.

40 civilians cross into Syria buffer zone

The Israeli military said it intercepted around 40 Israeli civilians who entered a military-controlled buffer zone in Syria before returning them to Israel and handing them to police.

Israeli media identified the group as members of Pioneers of Bashan, a right-wing movement calling for Jewish settlements in Lebanon and Syria.

Analysts: Fragile road ahead

Dr Saleh Al-Mutairi, head of the Al-Madar Center for Political Studies, said Iranian and American intransigence appeared superficial, arguing communication channels remained open and broad outlines had already been shaped privately.

He said the ceasefire extension was aimed at imposing new conditions.

Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor of international politics and security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, said Iran wanted the war to end with a deal it could present domestically as a victory.

He added that Tehran appeared eager for immediate sanctions relief and might be willing to give up enriched uranium in return.

This post was last modified on April 22, 2026 11:01 pm

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Sakina Fatima

Sakina Fatima, a digital journalist with Siasat.com, has a master's degree in business administration and is a graduate in mass communication and journalism. Sakina covers topics from the Middle East, with a leaning towards human interest issues.

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