Health and civilian workers carry out a mass burial of Palestinians at a cemetery in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on November 10, 2025. Photo: AFP
Gaza Strip: More than 75,000 Palestinians were killed during the first 16 months of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza Strip, significantly exceeding figures released by local authorities at the time, according to a new peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet Global Health.
The research, released on Wednesday, February 18, suggests the official toll may have been undercounted by at least 25,000 deaths. The estimate is based on a Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), a population-representative household study, of 2,000 households across the Gaza conducted between late December 2024 and early January 2025.
The study found that women, children and elderly people accounted for a majority of victims, broadly aligning with data issued by Gaza’s Health Ministry. Researchers estimated that 42,200 women, children and older adults died between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025, representing 56 percent of violent deaths during that period.
“The combined evidence suggests that, as of January 5, 2025, between three and four per cent of Gaza’s population had been killed violently,” the authors wrote, adding that the conflict had also caused a substantial number of indirect deaths.
The war began after Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages, according to Israeli authorities. Israel responded with a large-scale offensive that has destroyed large parts of the enclave and triggered a severe humanitarian crisis.
The number of deaths in Gaza has been widely disputed since the start of the war. However, last month a senior Israeli security official told local media that casualty figures compiled by Gaza health authorities were broadly accurate, marking a shift from earlier scepticism.
The official said about 70,000 Palestinians had been killed in Israeli attacks since October 2023, excluding those still missing.
Gaza health authorities currently report that more than 71,660 people have been killed, including over 570 deaths recorded since a ceasefire came into effect in October 2025.
Previous statistical analysis published in The Lancet indicated that the official death toll during the first nine months of the conflict was about 40 percent lower than independent estimates. The latest research points to a similar level of undercounting.
The fieldwork was carried out by trained Palestinian surveyors who conducted face-to-face interviews with families across Gaza’s districts. Respondents were asked to provide detailed information about household members killed during the war.
Professor Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, University of London, one of the authors, said the study aimed to provide an independent assessment of mortality rather than relying solely on administrative records.
The researchers also estimated that approximately 8,200 deaths during the period were caused by indirect factors, including malnutrition, untreated illnesses and limited access to healthcare.
The findings challenge claims that the number of civilian casualties has been exaggerated, concluding that non-combatants formed a majority of those killed.
Separate research by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated that more than 78,000 people were killed in Gaza between October 2023 and December 2024. That study also found that the conflict sharply reduced life expectancy in the territory.
Despite growing evidence, researchers cautioned that establishing a definitive death toll will take years.
“It will be a long time before a full accounting of all those killed in Gaza is possible, if it is ever achieved,” Spagat said.
The latest study covers the most intense phase of the war and does not include later developments, including the period when UN-backed experts declared famine in Gaza.
This post was last modified on February 20, 2026 5:56 pm