Suvendu’s firm grip, ‘skewed’ SIR deletions likely deciders in Nandigram

Kolkata: Shifting loyalties, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) strengthened organisational control and allegations of skewed Special Intensive Revision (SIR) voter deletions seem to have added extra layers of intrigue to Nandigram, making the high-stakes contest in this key seat one of the most closely watched in West Bengal’s Assembly polls.

In the evening of May 2, 2021, when Nandigram’s returning officer announced BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari’s victory over TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee by a razor-thin margin of 1,956 votes, the moment marked the beginning of a crucial chapter in the state’s politics.

Adhikari bagged over 1.1 lakh votes to humble the state’s most recognised leader, improving the BJP’s tally by over 1 lakh votes from the 2016 polls by overcoming the disadvantage of not having even one of the 17 gram panchayats (GP) or the two panchayat samitis which make up the Nandigram seat.

He jumped ship from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) on December 19, 2020, and barely had three months then to turn the tide in his favour.

Making inroads into Nandigram

In the last five years, a lot more water has flowed down the Haldi River, which circumvents Nandigram, with the BJP now controlling 11 of the 17 GPs and both panchayat samitis of Nandigram I and II blocks, giving Adhikari, the Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, a vital advantage in the 2026 polls, observers say.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP vastly improved its Nandigram Assembly segment performance by securing a lead of 8,200 votes, and a 49.49 per cent vote share as against TMC’s 45.87 per cent.

The site of the 2007 land acquisition unrests, Nandigram is widely recognised as one of the key political terrains in West Bengal, which propelled Mamata Banerjee to power in 2011, ending 34 years of Left rule in the state.

The March 14 police firing on villagers, who were protesting the state’s land acquisition for a proposed chemical hub, resulted in 14 deaths and subsequent widespread political repercussions.

“Adhikari has been attached to this constituency since 2006. During Modi’s rally at Kolkata’s Brigade Parade Grounds on March 14 this year, the anniversary of the Nandigram firing incident, Adhikari made it a point to reach the site, garland the martyrs’ columns at two locations and deliver speeches before heading to the state capital, despite 15 years having passed since that day. I doubt if any other BJP leader who would do this,” an observer said, requesting anonymity.

Bhumiputra versus Bhumiputra

In a strategic counter to Adhikari’s political dominance in the region, the TMC has fielded Pabitra Kar, a former BJP member long seen as a close aide and trusted lieutenant of the LoP. Kar joined the TMC just hours before his candidature was announced, making Nandigram a “Bhumiputra versus Bhumiputra” (local versus local) battle site.

His wife, Shiuli, a former pradhan of the Boyal II gram panchayat, also followed suit. Ironically, Kar, then a BJP leader, was an accused in the murder of a TMC worker ahead of the 2021 polls and was sent behind bars.

The TMC, which bagged the seat thrice from 2009-16, is desperate to wrest it back this time. The party’s de facto second-in-command, Abhishek Banerjee, said he was personally tracking developments on the ground.

Addressing a workers’ meet in Nandigram on March 25, he urged them to take responsibility for the constituency for the next 25 days, and he would be responsible for the seat for the next five years.

In a grassroots outreach programme, he operationalised two “Sebashraay” camps in Nandigram earlier this year for delivering medical services to the people and addressing the alleged healthcare gaps in the region.

Mission to garner BJP votes

Pralay Pal, a close aide of Adhikari managing his poll campaign in the seat, claimed that the TMC would suffer in the upcoming polls, less because of the BJP’s thrust and more due to the ruling party’s factional fights.

“The hype over Pabitra Kar is a big joke. Since he is a turncoat, the TMC hopes to draw some BJP votes in his kitty. While that is unlikely to happen, the disgruntled TMC old-timers, who held the party’s organisation in Nandigram, will now sabotage him. We only need to sit at the fence and enjoy the show,” Pal said.

Pal, though, conceded that of the two blocks comprising the seat, Nandigram I posed a tougher challenge for the saffron camp.

“Five of the 10 areas in Nandigram I are Muslim-dominated. Minorities in block II are fewer and evenly spread out. The BJP has always trailed in block I and the deficit is overcome by the gain we secure in block II, adding to our overall lead,” he said.

95 pc of deleted voters are Muslims

Findings from an analysis of SIR deletion data in Nandigram constituency by Sabar Institute, a Kolkata-based public policy research organisation, revealed a striking pattern of Muslims, who make up about 25 per cent of the population of the seat, accounting for 95.5 per cent of removals from the supplementary lists.

In contrast, only 4.5 per cent of non-Muslims were removed from the rolls, according to the study, which is based on EC data.

“This alarming disproportionality in deletions of Muslim voters was found only during the adjudication phase. We found that the ASDD (Absent, Shifted, Dead, Duplicate) deletions during the enumeration phase in December, around 33 per cent, broadly aligned with the 25 per cent population share of the minorities,” Sabar Institute Director Sabir Ahamed said.

“It is clear that these are targeted deletions of mapped voters on flimsy grounds by using biased AI tools,” he alleged.

CPI(M) youth leader Minakshi Mukherjee had tried her luck in Nandigram in the 2021 state polls, but bowed out with less than 3 per cent of the vote share. The Left has, interestingly, returned the seat this year to CPI, the traditional contenders from Nandigram, with Shanti Giri as its nominee.

Nandigram goes to the polls in the first phase of elections in Bengal on April 23.