Hyderabad: Telangana is likely to see a sharp drop in rainfall from August 27, as El Niño, a climate pattern marked by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, begins to assert itself over the state’s weather.
The forecast comes just as Telangana finishes riding out a spell of rain over the past three to four days, brought on by a low-pressure area.
Rainfall expected to reduce across Telangana
T Balaji, a weather enthusiast who tracks Telangana’s climate closely and runs the X handle Telangana Weatherman, has forecast that from August 27, most of the state will see either passing showers or stay dry altogether. The north and east are likely to get some light to moderate rain, but elsewhere, rainfall will be limited at best.
By his estimate, the dry spell won’t be brief. The deficit is expected to persist through the first week of September and beyond, with the state’s overall rainfall shortfall likely to cross 20 per cent by then.
Even less rainfall in Hyderabad
Hyderabad is expected to fare worse still, with its deficit projected to cross 25 per cent in the same window. And as the rain thins out, temperatures are expected to climb, with hot, humid conditions forecast across Telangana over the next 10 days.
The season’s numbers already tell a story of shortfall. Telangana has received 464.7 mm of rain against a normal of 537.8 mm this monsoon, a deviation of -14 per cent.
Hanumakonda has had it worst, recording just 329.7 mm against a normal of 599.8 mm, a steep -45 per cent deviation. Several other districts aren’t far behind, with Warangal, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Jangaon, Yadadri Bhuvanagiri, Medchal-Malkajgiri, Jogulamba Gadwal and Khammam have all logged deficits exceeding -30 per cent.
Only two districts have bucked the trend.
Kamareddy and Medak recorded surpluses of 22 and 20 per cent respectively, making them the sole entries on Telangana’s list of districts with excess rainfall this season.
Hyderabad itself has recorded 355.2 mm against its normal of 437.8 mm.
What is El Niño?
El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, with sea temperatures sometimes climbing several degrees Celsius above normal. Its effects ripple outward, reshaping rainfall patterns, temperatures and the odds of extreme weather in different parts of the world.
As ocean temperatures shift, so does atmospheric circulation, and with it, the usual pattern of rainfall. Some regions dry out while others see more rain than usual, with the intensity and duration of any given El Niño event determining how far-reaching the effects turn out to be, for agriculture, water supplies and anything else that depends on the weather behaving as expected.
