As the entire Iranian coastline in the Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf) has enormous economic as well as strategic significance for China and Russia, any such (mis)adventure by the United States in West Asia is likely to have long-term implications. The signing of a comprehensive strategic pact by Beijing, Moscow and Tehran on January 29, 2026, as well as another naval exercise in the region by these three countries later in February, should be seen in this background.
Be it Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, Bandar Imam Khomeini or even Abadan, the ports of Iran provide an opening to China and Russia in the warm water of West Asia. China and Russia are likely to greatly benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the International North-South Transport Corridor, respectively.
Besides, these two road-cum-rail networks criss-crossing Iran are of enormous advantage for the landlocked regions of Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Mongolia. They have the potential to transform the economy of about a dozen countries of Eurasia, which the US and its Western friends would not like. They are really worried as Iran may soon overcome the economic hardship following 47 years of Western sanctions.
Apart from this, a new such project linking Basra in Iraq to Istanbul in Turkey would further boost trade and commerce in the entire region.
Changing reality
It is this changing reality that has prompted Gulf countries to redraw their strategy. They are now well aware of how near China and Russia are to them. Contrary to this, the United States and Europe have become a distant world. Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, etc, are fast realising how the space is shrinking for them in the entire Middle East. The stupidity of President Donald Trump and the emergence of a serious rift within the West have also compelled the oil-rich Sheikhdoms to depend less on the colonial masters.
President Trump’s unpredictable behaviour and his military ambition in Greenland have aggravated the anxiety of European nations. Yet, on Trump’s strategy on Iran, most of the countries of Europe, as well as Israel, are solidly behind the US. The media in the entire White world are unanimous on this count.
But, these countries do not want to toe Washington’s line on China and, even to some extent, on Russia. So, the Islamic Republic stands as enemy number one for them. That is why the European Union recently declared the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation, prompting Tehran to retaliate by announcing European armies as terrorist groups.
Apart from its strategic location, Iran’s rich oil and natural gas reserves, as well as Tehran’s stand against Israel, work as a thorn in their flesh.
Energy-starved China buys 90 per cent of Iran’s exported oil at a cheaper rate. The country otherwise faces stiff sanctions. At present, the oil for China is mostly shipped, but in the future, it can be transported through pipelines.
Iran is also the third largest producer of natural gas in the world after the United States and Russia. China also depends heavily on Russia for its energy needs. Thus, leaders of the West are having sleepless nights over the fast integration of Chinese, Russian and Iranian interests.
Iran is not Venezuela
While Venezuela is only a few thousand kilometres from the US coast, Iran’s geographical proximity to Russia and China is another cause of worry. The Iranian army and the IRGC are battle-hardened and have, in June last year, thwarted the combined power of Israel, the United States and European nations. Venezuela has no such record.
At the same time, notwithstanding economic distress, Iranians in general have strong faith in the present establishment and are not going to bow down so easily.
On the other hand, both Russia and China now have access to the Indian Ocean – the dream they had been nursing for the last many decades – without firing a single shot.
The invasion of Afghanistan by the then Soviet Union in December 1979, that is just 11 months after the Ayatollah Khomeini-led Islamic Revolution, was a move taken with the view to take Iranian or Pakistani Balochistan. This could never happen. Instead, the Soviet Union disintegrated.
But China and the Pakistan Economic Corridor provided Beijing an opportunity to reach the port of Gwadar in Pakistani Balochistan. Chabahar is in Iranian Baluchistan, only 70-odd km away. Thus, China has the facility to use both these ports.
Challenge before India
Ironically, Chabahar was the port in which India invested heavily to bypass Pakistan to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia. But New Delhi has suddenly developed cold feet because of the US pressure. In the Union Budget for 2026-27 presented on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did not allocate a single rupee to the Chabahar port project. Thus, it has been virtually abandoned by India, which has also succumbed to Washington’s arm-twisting tactic on the purchase of Iranian oil.
In the same way, India may not be able to make use of the International North South Transport Corridor linking ports of Iran to Russia.
Contrary to this, the fate of India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, whose idea was floated in the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023, lies in limbo following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the same year to be followed by retaliatory Israeli genocide in Gaza. The port of Haifa, which was a crucial link of this project, was badly destroyed by Iranian bombardment during the 12-day-long war in June 2025.
It is because of these factors that the United States is rethinking its plan to carry out any direct attack on Iran.
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