Would Jammu and Kashmir throw up a stable government? Or will there be chaos again?

The Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir conducted its first assembly elections in a decade. It showcased the peaceful embrace of democracy by its people last week after decades of militancy.

These polls were held after the bifurcation of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh on August 5, 2019, following the revocation of Article 370. The BJP claimed that the move was necessary to tackle separatism, enhance economic development, and fully integrate the region into the country.

Since 1989, the state has faced militancy, violence, and a boycott of polls by separatist elements allegedly sponsored by Pakistan. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said, “The peaceful and participative elections are historic, wherein democracy is taking root more profoundly than ever before, driven by the will of the people of J&K.” 

Intense campaigning, peaceful polling, and high voter turnout marked the polls. Those afraid to go to the polling booth were allowed to vote peacefully. These were significant not only for political reasons but also because of developments such as the first Legislative Assembly elections in ten years, the abrogation of Article 370, and the restoration of democracy.

This time, the Hindu-dominated Jammu and Muslim-dominated Kashmir were united in the demand to restore statehood, which the Centre had promised earlier.

The higher voter turnout showed people’s desire for democracy. They were tired of gun fights and wanted to live a normal life.

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar praised the people of the Union Territory, which recorded 58.46 percent, the highest in 35 years.

The security forces ensured a violence-free election. They also stifled the free movement of separatists.

These elections differed from the previous polls as the politics of this region is no longer limited to the four traditional regional political parties– NC, PDP, and the national political parties INC and the BJP. The new addition was the participation of separatist elements in these polls, which must be addressed, as they had chosen the ballot route rather than the bullet route.

Despite many poll issues like lack of development and unemployment, the people wanted a revival of statehood and a united Jammu and Kashmir. The other key issues were Article 370, law and order, terrorism, and socio-economic stability. 

The delimitation panel gave Jammu six additional seats and Kashmir one. The Opposition held that the balance was tilting in favour of Hindu-majority Jammu. Scheduled castes and scheduled tribes got nine seats reserved. 

Kashmir has been under the international scanner. Diplomats from many countries were taken to the state to observe the polls. They got first-hand information from visiting the state. 

There are several reasons for the peaceful polls this time. The first was the minimal involvement of Pakistan, as it had its internal problems to sort out. India blames Pakistan for training, funding, and pushing Islamist militants, targetting the Hindu-dominated Jammu area more than the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley. Pakistan denies the charges.

Secondly, Kashmiris were tired of living in violent and disturbed situations. Two generations of children had lost their normal childhood.

Thirdly, militants did not call for the boycott of elections this time. On the contrary, separatists themselves entered the poll fray. Many areas once known as terror hotbeds saw brisk polling. The militants probably realised they needed funds and patrons, which they lacked. So, they decided to go through the election route. BJP chief J P Nadda said people had rejected the ballots and chose the ballot route.

The election in Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a multi-cornered contest for the 90 seats. The National Conference and Congress went for a coalition. At the same time, the BJP and PDP were the other two significant players.

The BJP had high stakes but a weak political base in the Valley, while it is strong in Jammu. The party contested only 19 of the 47 seats in the Valley. BJP knew the realistic position in the Valley where it could not hope to get votes. So, the BJP is fighting through proxies. A BJP candidate admitted that the party would get support from Engineer Rashid, Sajad Lone, Altaf Bukhari, and Ghulam Nabi Azad – all minor players.

Kashmiri pundits are still afraid of returning home. The people in both Jammu and the Valley lament the downgrading of the state to two union territories. There is still unemployment and the drug and narcotic trade. 

The election results will be out on October 8. The reports say that the National Conference-Congress coalition has a clear edge. The BJP, which has no presence in the Valley, propped up some independents and hopes to do well in Jammu.

The Centre should take credit for completing the election process, and so should the Election Commission. But the people of Jammu and Kashmir deserve kudos for fearlessly going to the polling booth to vote. They showed the trend in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections too.

There is no doubt Jammu and Kashmir want a popular government. But the only worry is that they must vote for a stable government rather than a split verdict. 

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