It has been a week since the Bharatiya Janata Party pulled off a spectacular victory in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti of three major partners scored a landslide, especially as a pre-poll alliance, and yet it has not staked its claim to form a government.
A week is a long time in politics and when the person who calls the shots is Home Minister Amit Shah, it is a very long time because the buck stops with him in this case. Even the two partners of Bharatiya Janata Party – Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Nationalist Congress Party steered by Ajit Pawar know his is the last word.
None of the three parties have yet elected their legislature party chiefs, a must for moving forward. Once they emerge with the due formalities done, the three leaders of their respective parties have to go to the Raj Bhawan and formally stake their claim. This should have happened by 26th when the life of the Assembly ended.
It didn’t and predictably the opposition has started muddying the waters by announcing their serious misgivings about the EVMs, then a signature campaign against them claims that misuse of office and money power made them lose the polls. And a question: Why didn’t the Centre impose the President’s Rule? It is asked, “You got the landslide, but where are the celebrations?”
Everything is sombre, even MLAs are unable to lobby for jobs. But it is the home ministry that has to make the moves and the governor cannot speak of a constitutional crisis to call for President’s Rule. Because it is the home minister who hasn’t been able to help form the government. As a party man, it is his task. The underlying causes for the delay in setting up the government are best known to Shah.
Forming a government in Maharashtra is not like leaving Manipur to its fate; it mostly has been despite the crisis. The political compulsions are greater here because in politics winning a state is all that matters. And there are other political battles to be fought for the BJP to establish its full control on Maharashtra, a major rich state sending the second largest contingent to Lok Sabha.
“Hundred percent BJP” was a call – and a slogan – which the late Pramod Mahajan had put out and that is the legitimate purpose of any political party though, out of compulsion their leaders speak of the arrival of the ‘coalition era.’ Even the regional parties would like to hold their respective sways in their states.
Out of the top political tiers of the three parties, none knows the reasons for the delay and they have sealed their lips. The only thing the world knows is that the BJP leads the government, the parties carrying forward their pre-poll pact. It is not even officially announced that Devendra Fadnavis would lead it for the BJP; it is only assumed – so far, only a “frontrunner.”
There is, however, a discernible element. The NCP’s Ajit Pawar has ensured that Shinde’s claim to be the chief minister was sabotaged even before it was thought of. His party openly threw its lot with the BJP. BJP and NCP together have much more than 145 – the minimum number for a one-member majority. Shinde was thus blindsided by the word go.
It is a given that the three partners do not easily come to an understanding about power-sharing. It is not just the number of cabinet ministers and ministers of state that have to be decided. Which party gets what portfolio is the key to power sharing. Who gets the speaker’s seat in the legislative assembly and the chairman in the council also counts.
Cut back to 1999
When two rivals for the votes, Congress and the nascent Nationalist Congress Party formed the post-poll alliance, the negotiations were tough and painstaking. NCP agreed to give up the chief minister’s post’s claim and bargained for other offices – the speaker, key portfolios, and corporations. Vilasrao, who had resigned himself to be the leader of the opposition, became the chief minister of the Congress.
The art of negotiations is a skill and a game of nerves. Sharad Pawar showed exemplary levels of patience and tried the rivals to such an extent that Congress was grateful to be a part of the government. Then Shiv Sena was anathema to both parties. Pawar had even used the ploy of inviting Uddhav and Raj Thackeray home for dinner and ‘talked of the weather.’
The word spread like lightning and Congress weakened its stand. Next it indicated that Sudhakarrao Naik of the Congress was independently discussing a likely deal with the Sena. That undid the Congress resolve to ‘take it all’ and the alliance government was formed and everyone was happy that the then Sena and the BJP were kept out of power.
Something like that may happen. The muhurat has been set for December 5. It has been announced that the prime minister, Narendra Modi would attend the swearing-in ceremony. The rest of the details are still unknown. A party that asked Fadnavis not to be the CM though he led the larger party with a segment of a split Sena could be up to anything. Its bosses alone know the cards. The public, on the other hand, has to remain ‘dumb’ and dumbfounded.
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