Exit poll 2022: What are BJP’s chances in the five states?

Siasat.com has compiled a list of the prominent exit polls which attempt to predict the election results of these five states.

The Legislative assembly election results of five states ie Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur have been the topic of discussion as the results could have a heavy impact on the Union legislature and on the future of the chief political parties at the Centre. It would also determine the fate of some regional parties who are hoping to make headway in National politics.

Siasat.com has compiled a list of the prominent exit polls which attempt to predict the election results of these five states.

Uttar Pradesh

With election results being announced on March 10 all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh as votes in the state turn just over 15 percent of seats in the lower house of the parliament.

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and the Indian National Congress (INC) are the key contenders in the state.

However, the state will witness a tough fight between the SP and the BJP.

The Exit Polls of ETG Research have predicted a win for the BJP in the state with a 38.4 per cent seat share, between 230-245 seats of the 403.

A majority of the exit polls predict a similar pattern, predicting a clean sweep for the BJP in the state. India News exit polls have predicted that the BJP will hold 222-260 seats followed by SP at 135-165.

As per predictions of NewsX-Polstrat, the BJP will acquire 211-225 whereas SP will follow at 146-160 seats in the states.

Uttarakhand

Major political parties are contesting for 70 seats in the Uttarkhand legislative assembly elections. 36 seats are essential to win the majority. It is expected to be a tight race between the ruling-BJP and the opposition Congress.

Aam Aadmi Party is likely to make some headway in the state.

As per NewsX-Polstrat, BJP is likely to get 31 to 33 seats while Congress makes headway with 33-35 seats.

On the other hand, ETG Research has predicted BJP obtain 37-40 seats with Congress falling short with 29-32 seats. India TV-CNX has also predicted a BJP win with 35-43 seats and 24-32 seats going to Congress.

A similar sentiment was echoed by India Today’s exit polls with 36-46 seats heading BJP’s way and 20-30 seats falling in Congress’s lap.

However, most polls have predicted a BJP despite there existing a slim difference between BJP and Congress’s numbers.

Punjab

In Punjab’s case, 59 seats need to be won by a party out of the 117 contesting ones to form the government.

While Congress has long governed the state, polls predict a good sign for Aam Aadmi Party’s chief ministerial candidate Bhagwant Mann with BJP fairing poorly in the region.

NewsX-Polstrat has argued that no more than 1-6 seats will head BJP’s way. AAP, according to their estimate will form the government with 56-61 seats and Congress will hold the dominant opposition with 24-29 seats.

India Today made a similar prediction while granting more seats to AAP. As per India Today’s predictions, 76-90 seats will go to AAP, Congress will procure 19-31 seats and BJP will suffer a defeat with 1-4 wins.

ETG Research argues that 3-7 seats will go to BJP, 27-33 to Congress, and 70-75 will head AAP’s way. The unanimous agreement seems to be that AAP will form the government in Punjab.

Goa

As per the prediction the majority of Exit polls the BJP and the INC will form a coalition in the state with the former having an upper hand with the majority of seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), and the Trinamool Congress are the key contenders in the state.

To form the government in the state a party needs a minimum of 21 seats. ETG Research exit polls predict that the BJP will acquire a majority with 17-20 seats followed by the INC at 15-17 seats and will form a coalition with the opposition.

The TMC will acquire 3-4 of the 40 seats, the elections are being held for in the state.

The exit polls of India TV-CNX have predicted a win for the BJP in the state with 16-22 seats followed by the INC at 11-17 seats and TMC at 1-2 seats.

As per the exit polls of NewsX-Polstrat, the BJP will form a coalition with the INC after the former acquires 17-19 seats while the latter wins 11-13 seats in the state.

Manipur

The state holds elections for 60 seats in the assembly with 31 seats as a majority to form a government in the state.

The BJP and the INC battle for a majority here, however, a majority of exit polls predict a clean sweep for the BJP with at least 31 seats.

Exit polls of India News suggest that the BJP will be forced to form a coalition with the opposition, acquiring only 23-28 seats, however, the exit polls of India TV -Ground Zero Research suggest that the BJP will sweep victory with 26-31 followed by INC at 12-17 seats.

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