The likely launch of Nishant Kumar, son of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar into politics, probably around Holi, confirms the fact that there exists a vacancy not only for the post of leadership of Janata Dal (United) but of the entire National Democratic Alliance.
If this development takes place the ruling combination in the state would lose an opportunity to target the dynasty/family domination of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress. This was a significant difference between JD (U) and the two main parties of the opposition Grand Alliance.
One wonders how this move would be greeted by the JD (U), Bharatiya Janata Party, and other smaller partners, but the RJD would certainly welcome it. Lalu Prasad Yadav-led party hopes that in any battle between Nishant and its chief ministerial face, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, the latter will have an edge. Though he is much younger he has shown his mettle both as the deputy CM and leader of the opposition. Nishant, on the other hand, is not only a rookie but has never shown any inclination towards politics.
Weaknesses exposed
The ‘coronation’ of Nishant as the Crown Prince would expose several serious weaknesses in the Janata Dal (U)-BJP camp. First, it would amount to the acknowledgment of the fact that Nitish Kumar is certainly not in the pink, and is unable to lead the NDA in the next Assembly election due in the last week of October. Officially till now, his health condition is the best-kept secret. The Bihar CM has on several occasions in the last couple of years behaved erratically in public functions—he bowed down to touch the feet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former BJP Rajya Sabha MP, R K Sinha.
At the same time, it would be an acceptance of the fact that the BJP has in the last three decades failed to groom its chief ministerial candidate. When the saffron party roped in the Samata Party–as the JD (U) was then known—on the eve of the 1996 Lok Sabha election the BJP did not have any leader of the stature of Nitish to match Lalu, then known as the Mandal-Messiah.
The BJP certainly had Sushil Kumar Modi, but he lacked the caste appeal of Lalu and Nitish. The inner-party contradictions within the BJP did not let Sushil Modi rise after 2014, though Nitish had on a couple of occasions deserted the Sangh camp during this period. The BJP got the best opportunity in the 2015 Assembly election to project Sushil Modi as CM face though he was not the choice of the top leadership of the party. Nitish-led JD (U), RJD, and Congress swept the poll winning 178 out of 243 seats. The saffron party, notwithstanding the massive election campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, suffered a humiliating rout winning only 53 seats—five other seats were bagged by the smaller NDA constituents.
SuMo, as Sushil Modi was known, died on May 13 last year leaving behind no towering personality in the party.
Existential crisis
If Janata Dal (U) is facing an existential crisis, the situation in BJP too is not so rosy. The two deputy chief ministers of the BJP Vijay Kumar Sinha, an upper caste Bhumihar, and Samrat Chaudhary, a Kushwaha (an OBC), as well as state party chief Dilip Jaiswal, who is from a trading community, lacked this stature.
Unlike in many other states, the central leadership of the BJP cannot thrust any Tom, Dick, and Harry as the chief minister as the party alone has no scope of coming to power. If this could not happen in
2015, the high time of Narendra Modi’s popularity, it could not dream of any miracle this time. So, it was bound to rely on the worn-out horse called Nitish Kumar.
No successor
The problem with the present Bihar chief minister is that he has never groomed anyone from his own party as his successor. And if he had done so, it was none other than Tejashwi of RJD, who had served as his deputy twice. On a couple of occasions, the Bihar chief minister publicly declared him as his successor, the last time on December 13, 2022, when he was leading a JD (U)-RJD alliance.
It remains a mystery as to what had suddenly prompted Nitish to take his son to a public function in Bakhtiyarpur, his hometown in Patna district, on January 17. Nishant (50) for the first time appealed to the voters to return his father to power and even interacted with the mediapersons. Perhaps he was not aware of the fact that in the election campaign of 2020, Nitish had publicly declared that he was seeking votes for the last time.
It may not be known whether Nitish had done so on his own or at the behest of the BJP, which is fully aware that in the 2020 Assembly election Tejashwi alone led the Grand Alliance to close to victory—his father Lalu was then in jail. RJD itself emerged as the single-largest party in the Assembly winning 75 seats.
Nishant’s maiden appearance at a public function sparked off speculations in Bihar politics.
The moot question, however, is whether it was a decision taken too late. Or does Nitish only want to test the water by floating his name?
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