Hyderabad: Among all 15 Assembly constituencies in Hyderabad, Bahadurpura has recorded the highest percentage of Muslim-name deletions in the draft SIR rolls released by the Election Commission on August 17, Siasat.com’s analysis shows.
Of the 1,21,350 electors left out of the draft roll, an estimated 1.05 lakh, or about 86 out of every 100, carry Muslim names.
Before the SIR exercise began in Telangana, Bahadurpura had 3,51,023 voters – the 1,21,350 names left off plus the 2,29,673 retained. On that basis, about 35 in every 100 names came off, the lowest rate among Hyderabad’s 15 Assembly segments, even as the seat produces the district’s highest Muslim-name share, Siasat.com’s analysis shows.
Analysing the data
According to Siasat.com’s analysis of the Election Commission’s Absent, Shifted, Dead and Duplicate (ASDD) list of Telangana SIR, those who shifted from Bahadurpura account for 72,490 of voters likely to be deleted, with an estimated 64,000, or 88 in every 100, carrying Muslim names.
Bahadurpura also has the highest shifted share of entries with Muslim names in Hyderabad.
Another 29,859 electors are recorded as absent in the Assembly constituency, of whom an estimated 25,000 – or 83 in every 100 – have Muslim names. Among 9,740 marked as dead, the estimate is 8,000, or 82 in every 100. Among 9,261 marked as duplicate, the number shoots up to 92 in every 100, the highest figure recorded in any category in any Hyderabad constituency.
Women outnumber men on Bahadurpura’s list
Women account for 62,885 of the 1.21 lakh electors, or 51.8 per cent, left off Bahadurpura’s draft SIR roll, against 58,446 men and 19 recorded as third gender.
Bahadurpura’s list is in contrast to Hyderabad’s deleted list, where men outnumber women – 10,13,344 men to 9,27,935 women. But it is similar to Telangana’s overall the excluded population, which splits almost evenly – 37,01,808 men to 36,35,125 women, Saisat.com’s analysis shows.
The excluded: People of working age
The exclusions in Bahadurpura concentrate in the middle aged voters. The 35 to 44 band has the largest deletions at 37,825, followed by 45 to 59 at 30,874 and 25 to 34 at 26,261. Those over 60 account for 20,293 and the youngest band, 18 to 24, has 5,917 voters likely to be deleted in the draft rolls.
Taken together, 64,086 of the excluded – more than half – are aged between 25 and 44, Siasat.com’s analysis shows.
Among those aged 25 to 34, as many as 16,711 are marked shifted, 7,118 absent, 2,087 duplicate and 325 dead. Among those aged 35 to 44, it is 23,903 shifted, 9,816 absent, 3,107 duplicate and 999 dead. In the 45 to 59 band, an 18,287 are categorised as shifted, 7,465 absent, 2,494 duplicate and 2,628 dead.
Shifted holds at roughly 63 in every 100 in each of them.
Only above 60 does the data look different. There, 9,875 are marked shifted and 3,849 absent, but 5,757 are recorded as dead, which is 28 in every 100 in the age group and 59 per cent of every death entry in the constituency.
But 3,983 of Bahadurpura’s 9,740 death entries, or 41 per cent, belong to people under 60, including 325 in their late 20s and early 30s and 31 aged between 18 and 24.
Political backdrop
The Old City seat has been an All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) stronghold since it was created ahead of the 2009 election. Mohammed Mubeen won it in 2023 with 89,451 votes and a 62.24 per cent share, defeating Mir Inayath Ali Baqri of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) by 67,025 votes. Mubeen, a four-time corporator, succeeded Mohammad Moazam Khan, who had held the seat from 2009.
The number of names flagged in Bahadurpura exceeds the votes the sitting MLA polled to win it. It is also close to double his margin of victory.
Disclaimers
Bahadurpura is among the most heavily Muslim concentrated constituencies in the country, and a list of likely deleted names drawn from it will read that way.
Those who are on the ASDD list will not receive notices, unlike unmapped electors or those flagged for anomalies. However, electors left off the draft roll can file a claim until September 16. Hearings run to October 15, which means that can get themselves enrolled in the final list that is due on October 19.
Estimates in this report come from a name-based model applied to the Election Commission’s published lists. Electoral rolls carry no religion column and no individual entry is labelled.
(This is Part 4 of a multi-part series on the analysis of the Telangana and Hyderabad SIR. Click to read Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3. Stay tuned as we publish more)
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