Hyderabad: Chandrayangutta, the Old City constituency Akbaruddin Owaisi has held for the AIMIM since 1999, accounts for the largest number of people with Muslim names deleted from Hyderabad’s draft Special Intensive Revision (SIR) roll of any assembly constituency in the district, according to data analysed by Siasat.com.
Of the 1,48,869 electors marked for deletions in the segment, an estimated 1.08 lakh, or about 72 out of every 100, have Muslim names.
In the 2023 assembly polls in Telangana, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s (AIMIM) Owaisi won by 99,776 votes, with a 64.89 per cent vote share, defeating Muppidi Seetharam Reddy of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) by 81,660 votes. Kowdi Mahendar of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finished third with 16,414 votes and the Congress fourth with 14,589.
Total votes polled in the constituency stood at 1,53,771 in 2023.
Set against that polling data, the exclusions are close to the total number of people who voted in 2023. The 1.4 lakh names flagged amount to 97 per cent of every vote cast in Chandrayangutta in 2023, and are nearly twice the size of Akbaruddin Owaisi‘s winning margin, Siasat.com’s analysis shows.
Chandrayangutta had 3,77,300 electors before the revision began, which is the 2,28,431 still on the draft roll plus the 1,48,869 likely to be deleted. That means about 39 in every 100 names came off, marginally below Hyderabad’s 41.
Reason for deletions from draft SIR rolls
Shifted is the dominant category, covering 91,910 of the deleted entries in the draft rolls. Of those, an estimated 69,000, or 75 in every 100, carry Muslim names, according to Siasat.com’s analysis of the Election Commission’s Absent, Shifted, Dead and Duplicate (ASDD) list released alongside its SIR draft roll on August 17.
Another 37,800 electors are recorded as absent, meaning a booth-level officer noted that nobody could be found at the registered address. An estimated 25,000 of them, 65 in every 100, carry Muslim names.
Among the 12,822 marked as dead, an estimated 9,000, or 71 in every 100, carry Muslim names. Among the 6,337 marked as duplicate, the estimate is higher, rising to 5,000 people, or 85 in every 100, having Muslim names.
Among the percentage of electors flagged as duplicate, Chandrayangutta has the second-highest share in Hyderabad, behind Bahadurpura’s 92 per cent and ahead of Yakutpura’s 84. The high Muslim-named flags in the duplicate category are a pattern seen across almost all of Hyderabad’s Assembly constituencies.
Most overall deletions in working-age group
The exclusions in Chandrayangutta fall most heavily on people in their late 30s and 40s. As many as 46,403 of those left off are aged 35 to 44, the largest of the five age groups Siasat.com analysed. Another 37,987 are between 45 and 59 and 31,276 are between 25 and 34. Those aged over 60 account for 26,420 and the youngest band, 18 to 24, for 6,772 names deleted from the draft roll.
Put together, just under 78,000 of the constituency’s 1,48,869 exclusions are people between 25 and 44.
There’s very little change when the age groups are categorised between shifted, absent, dead and duplicate as reasons for deletions. For instance, among those aged 25 to 34, as many as 20,606 are marked shifted and 8,783 absent, with 1,397 duplicate and 490 dead. Among those aged 35 to 44, as many as 30,308 were marked as shifted, 12,443 absent, 2,183 duplicate and 1,480 dead.
In the 45 to 59 band in Chandrayangutta, it is 23,373 shifted, 9,341 absent, 1,703 duplicate and 3,570 dead. Among the 18 to 24 age group, 4,412 are marked shifted, 1,872 are absent, 61 are dead and 427 have duplicate entries.
It is only above 60 where a change is seen. Among them, 13,211 are marked shifted and 5,361 absent, but 7,221 are recorded as dead – more than half of all the death entries in the constituency.
Those who are on the ASDD list will not receive notices, unlike unmapped electors or those flagged for anomalies. Electors left off the draft roll can file a claim until September 16. Hearings run to October 15, and the final roll is due on October 19.
Disclaimer
A high Muslim-name share in Chandrayangutta’s ASSD list may be due to the constituency in the Old City having a large Muslim electorate.
Estimates in this report come from a name-based model applied to the Election Commission’s published lists. Electoral rolls carry no religion column. Figures carry a +/-2.7 per cent margin of error.
(This is Part 3 of a multi-part series on the analysis of the Telangana and Hyderabad SIR. Click to read Part 1 and Part 2. Stay tuned as we publish more)
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