Hyderabad: The Congress in Andhra Pradesh (AP) has been more or less non-existent over the last decade ever since the bifurcation of Telangana and AP in 2014. Having been politically decimated in Andhra since then, the grand old party finally has some hope for revival in the form of making YS Sharmila as the state party president. Political observers believe that Sharmila’s contest from the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat will likely dent the ruling YSRCP due to several factors at play this time around.
Sharmila contesting from the Kadapa seat this time is certainly a cause for concern for the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), run by her brother YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, as a loss in Kadapa will be a huge loss of face. It might also uplift the Congress and set it up on a course of revival.
Considered dead, the Congress thanks to Sharmila has managed to even draw a few sitting MLAs from the ruling YSRCP over the last month or so. This will only add to the YSRCP’s troubles, given that this time it will be facing a combined opposition of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Jana Sena Party (JSP).
Hopes of Congress revival
”The YSRCP camp is currently brewing with a lot of unhappy leaders and we would have liked to see more defections towards Sharmila since it would have helped us build a narrative. But we strongly believe that she can win easily from Kadapa. It was her deceased uncle Vivekananda Reddy’s last wish to see her as the MP from that seat,” said a highly placed source from Sharmila’s camp.
If the Congress manages to get deposit even in a dozen seats, it will mostly come at the cost of the YSRCP, which has now become a second option for anyone from the YSRCP to defect to. Sharmila also brings with her the legacy of her father.
Sharmila’s candidature from the Kadapa Parliament seat is going to be interesting to watch as it is the home turf of the YS family (both of them are children of the late ex-Andhra Pradesh chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy). While the Congress is in no position to give anyone a tough fight across the state, Sharmila’s presence combined with defections from the YSRCP might just give her the edge in Kadapa in case of a close fight.
YSRCP functionaries however said that they are confident of their party’s win. “There is no sympathy or any danger of our party losing as far as we know,” said a functionary when asked if he thinks Sharmila has a chance of winning.
Sharmila, Jagan and Vivekananda Reddy’s murder
More importantly, the murder of Sharmila’s uncle and ex-MP Vivekananda Reddy (Rajasekhara Reddy’s brother) in the run up to the 2019 General Elections will also likely play a big role. In the most recent development, Vivekananda’s murder has been pinned by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on sitting Kadapa MP Avinash Reddy, who is also a cousin of Sharmila and Jagan.
Vivekananda’s daughter Suneetha Reddy this time is also campaigning for Sharmila. Avinash is likely to be at a disadvantage as he and his father Bhaskar Reddy are accused of being involved in the 2019 murder.
E Venkatesu, a faculty member of University of Hyderabad’s Political Science department and analyst said that Sharmila is going to ‘drastically’ reduce the YSRCP vote share. “She has appeal due to Vivekanada Reddy’s murder, as his daughter Suneetha is supporting Sharmila. On social media, it is being made out that Avinash Reddy, the YSRCP candidate, killed his uncle Vivekananda. That allegation has chances to tilt the YSRCP vote bank towards Sharmila,” he added.
YSRTP and return back to AP Congress for Sharmila
Sharmila’s camp is leaving no stone unturned in turning around her political fortune as well, given that she had tried her luck in Telangana for about four years. Post the 2019 Andhra Pradesh state and Lok Sabha polls, the AP Congress chief had a fallout with Jagan Mohan Reddy as she did not find space in the YSRCP.
Sharmila started the YSR Telangana Party and began campaigning for the 2023 Telangana state polls. However, just before the elections, she withdrew from the contest and instead supported the Congress. Subsequently, she joined the grand old party in Andhra Pradesh, and may perhaps become the key in the party’s revival.
In the 2019 Andhra Pradesh state and Lok Sabha polls, the Congress vote share stood at about one percent. The YSRCP had won 151 out of 175 Assembly seats and 23 Parliamentary constituencies. The TDP, which had then broken ties with the BJP, could win just 23 seats thanks to the Jana Sena contesting on its own and splitting votes. With the TDP and JSP now in alliance with the BJP, the YSRCP will face a bigger challenge.
If Sharmila manages to win the Kadapa Lok Sabha seat, it will be an even bigger loss of face for Jagan and the YSRCP. “The TDP is not in the race for the Kadapa seat, and is indirectly supporting Sharmila. She can shift some votes against the TDP alliance with her criticism of the YSRCP and the Congress may be able to get 2-3% vote share at best. But if can bring that to 5% then the YSRCP will certainly lose,” opined Venkatesu
