Anti-incumbency on its side, BJP swears by Modi in Rajasthan: A SWOT analysis

Jaipur: The BJP is expected to bank heavily on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the development projects launched at the Centre as it heads into the Rajasthan Assembly polls on November 23.

It will try to exploit the infighting in the state’s ruling Congress while it manages factionalism within its own ranks. A SWOT analysis the party’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Strengths

• The BJP has a strong organisational set up down to the booth level. The party began preparing for the elections well in advance.

• As elsewhere, the party hopes to cash in on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has already addressed a series of rallies in the state.

• The BJP’s Hindutva appeal will help it get votes. The party is also expected to bring up cases of communal violence in the state, and accuse the Ashok Gehlot government of “appeasement”.

Weaknesses

• The differences within the BJP unit may not be as out in the open as in the rival Congress, but the party will have to tread carefully while dealing with former CM Vasundhara Raje and her camp.

• The BJP has not been able to effectively counter the Congress narrative that the Centre is reluctant to accord the “national project” status to the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project, which covers some districts where BJP is considered weak.

Opportunities

• Anti-incumbency, a strong factor in Rajasthan since the 1990s, is in its favour. After five years of Congress rule, the voters could be inclined to bring the BJP to power this time.

• The BJP will exploit the infighting within the rival party. Congress rebel Sachin Pilot has this year targeted the CM on matters like exam paper leaks.

• The BJP will try to corner the Gehlot government on law and order, particularly crime against women. A red diary’ detailing corruption that is claimed to be in the possession of a sacked Rajasthan minister Rajendra Gudha is also a talking point.

Threats

• The restoration of the Old Pension Scheme and the launch of a series of welfare initiatives by the Gehlot government will pull votes for the Congress.

• Former BJP leader and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party supremo Hanuman Beniwal will garner Jat votes which might have gone to the BJP in some constituencies. In tribal areas, the new Bhartiya Adivasi Party is the one to watch out for.