Eleven days before Israel targeted Qatar on September 9 to eliminate Hamas leaders engaged in peace talks, Turkey was reminded that Israel had been “committing genocide” in Gaza. Its foreign minister, Hakan Fidan (himself a Kurd), on August 29, announced in parliament that his country is snapping all the trade and economic ties with Israel. There will be no air and shipping contact with the Zionist entity anymore.
Qatar was bombed, notwithstanding the presence of 3,000 Turkish soldiers in that country. Additionally, there is an American military base located there. If the Iranian drones on their way to Israel were shot down by the US troops based in Jordan, why was the same action not taken against the Israeli Air Force in this case to protect Qatar? Thus, connivance cannot be ruled out.
Ironically, it took about 23 months for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to realize that Israelis have been indulging in criminal acts against helpless men, women, and children of Gaza. But if no Turkish ship or plane would be docking or landing in Israel and vice versa, what will happen to Azerbaijani oil, which is piped to the port of Turkey and then shipped to Israel? The authorities in Ankara have, until the writing of this article, not made their position clear on this issue. If oil shipment is really stopped from Azerbaijan, the largest supplier to Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have to look elsewhere for the oil it uses to fuel its bombers to destroy Gaza and target Syria, Yemen, Iran, and now Qatar. In that way, Turkey, which is earning fast bucks as a middleman, is also involved in crime against Palestinians. It would be too much to say that Erdogan is taking revenge on Arabs for their revolt against the Ottoman Empire at the height of World War I in 1916, but the game he is playing in the region exposes his ambition.
It would be suicidal for any Arab friend of Israel if, even after the latest bombing of Qatar, it comes to the rescue of Netanyahu and sells oil to Tel Aviv in case Turkey really stops transporting Azerbaijani oil.
Too clever by half
Turkey in May 2024—that is, seven months after October 7, 2023—announced that it is severing direct trade with Israel, but now its foreign minister claimed that it had broken all the ties through air and maritime routes. Thus, the picture has become more complex and exposed the double speak of Erdogan. Former Indian ambassador to Turkey M K Bhadrakumar, in an article in Deccan Herald on August 13, wrote: “Turks wear different hats depending on circumstances–from Neo-Ottomanism and Islamism to Pan-Turkism and NATO membership.”
So, the Erdogan government’s latest hardening of its stand against Israel has perhaps little to do with the Gaza genocide, but more to do with the situation in Syria, where Ankara has failed to expand its influence after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship on December 8 last year. Rather, it is US-led Israel that now has virtual sway over this country. The Israel Defence Forces are not only consolidating their positions in the vicinity of defenceless Damascus, but are also controlling 40 % of Syria’s water. Washington and Tel Aviv have become so emboldened by the collapse of Syria that now they are poking their nose into Lebanon, where they want to demilitarize Hezbollah.
Turkey, US role in Caucasus
Shia-dominated Azerbaijan is a good friend of both Sunni Turkey and Israel. Contrary to this, Azerbaijan reportedly gave air space to the Israeli Air Force to bomb Iran, though the latter is the leading Shia power in the world. Mossad agents secretly entered Iran to kill top scientists and commanders from Azerbaijan. This had happened notwithstanding the April 28 visit to Baku by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who himself is of Azeri origin. As an initiative to improve ties with its northern neighbor, the Iranian President undertook the first trip in six years to that country.
Azerbaijan is the biggest arms purchaser from Israel, in its war with Armenia, the first Christian country on Earth. Armenian Christians’ hatred for Jews is a known fact. On the other hand, the Turkey-Armenia relationship has hardly improved ever since the bloody feud during World War I.
Whatever Turkey’s posture in the Middle East and Caucasus, Ankara will be the beneficiary of the August 8 Nobel Prize-dreaming Donald Trump brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This agreement will pave the way for an economic corridor from the energy-rich Caspian Sea region to the West. The role of Turkey, a NATO member, would be crucial. The goal is to checkmate Russia and Iran.
Curiously, the International North-South Transport Corridor from the Iranian coast to Russia is going to facilitate all the countries of the region, including Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The United States, Israel, and Western European countries would not appreciate this development.
Needless to remind, Turkish President Erdogan was invited to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Tianjin, though the country is not its full member. Turkey was the only NATO member to be present there.
Incidentally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his Pakistani counterpart Shahbaz Sharif, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with Erdogan and host Chinese leader Xi Jinping, were present on the occasion. Till sometimes back, this was not expected, and the credit for bringing them together goes to the US President Donald Trump.
The joint communiqué condemned the crime in Gaza, Israeli and American bombing on Iran, and the terror attack on Jafar Express in Pakistan and Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir in India.
Geopolitical status of Turkey
As Turkey enjoys geo-strategic importance, the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union all want to pull it into their own side. At the same time, it has a historical role to play in West and Central Asia as well as North Africa, which were once parts of its empire.
As Erdogan seeks to capitalize on this geographical advantage, he is attempting to navigate multiple paths simultaneously. This is a risky adventure, and he would have to draw a clear-cut line on Israel. He will have to accept that Israel is a military outpost of the West. After about a million Russian and Ukrainian casualties, the United States and European powers have not given up their responsibility to protect Ukraine. This is so even though both Russia and Ukraine have an overwhelming population of followers of the Greek Orthodox Church.
If Ukraine cannot be abandoned, how can Israel, a nation that the United States, the United Kingdom, and France created with certain clear-cut military objectives. To achieve this purpose, Biblical prophecy is fully exploited. War-shattered Israel under Netanyahu is not doing all this alone.
Erdogan’s lip service to Arabs would not work.
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