As the country gears up for another round of general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Lok Sabha campaign appears to have reduced to merely opposing the agenda set by Congress in its manifesto.
Unlike earlier elections, BJP leaders have not been able to chart the party’s own roadmap to the polls this time. Most of their campaign speeches are only reactions to the agenda set by Congress. Even Prime Minister Modi, the BJP’s lynchpin, whose leadership is marshalled by the party as the key campaigning tool, has taken a recourse to communal rhetoric and criticising the Congress’ manifesto.
Many controversial remarks by BJP leaders, which are coarse, highly polarising and divisive, came in response to the Congress party’s studied pivot to agenda of social justice (which depends on caste census) and expanded welfare.
For example, PM Modi’s ‘infilitrators’ remark against the Muslim community came as the PM accused of the grand old party of redistributing the country’s wealth among the Muslim community. Many other BJP leaders during campaign speeches in different parts of the country parroted the same rhetoric, which may serve two purposes for BJP: Appealing to voter base who believe in the idea of Hindutva, and discrediting Congress manifesto as ‘minority appeasement’.
Looking at the last two general elections in India, the 2014 elections occurred amidst heightened communal tension following the Muzaffarnagar riots. The BJP capitalised on this polarisation, exploiting Hindu perceptions.
In 2019, the Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrike, portrayed as robust responses to Pakistan, fueled a nationalist fervour and communal divisions, helping BJP win a comfortable majority.
In 2024, while there’s no recent communal incident, the BJP has invoked religious sentiments and allegedly misrepresented the Congress’ manifesto.
Congress general secretary Sachin Pilot, in a recent interview with The Hindu, said, “While Congress is talking about equitable growth, the BJP has resorted to fear mongering and lies.”
He addded: “The intent of the Congress manifesto is in black and white. To blatantly lie about and spread canards about our manifesto shows the desperation of the BJP. I would be happy if the BJP were to debate on issues, policies and governance structures. But that is not happening.”
Ram temple darshan among ‘Modi ki guarantee’
In the heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the grand new Ram Temple has become the focal point of the BJP’s campaign as the party promises Ram Lalla’s darshan to even those living in hinterlands. Together, these states have 214 of 543 Lok Sabha seats, and Modi hopes they will power him to victory for a third consecutive time.
The BJP’s assurances primarily highlight the welfare schemes spearheaded by Modi over the past decade. Interestingly, while Modi vehemently criticises similar welfare initiatives by his opponents as mere handouts, he proudly champions his own welfare initiatives under the banner of “Modi ki guarantee.”
The party has consistently attempted to polarise voters by strategically leveraging the Hindutva ideology, both overtly and covertly. This strategy often involves manipulating or exaggerating facts and incidents to sway public opinion in their favour.
These tactics, amplified by media coverage, yielded significant electoral gains for the BJP in the Rajasthan assembly elections last year. With the Congress unable to effectively counter the spread of misinformation, the polarisation of votes ultimately led to the downfall of the Gehlot government.
“Evidently, to attain its target of winning more than 400 seats for the NDA and to realise the long-cherished RSS dream of making India a Hindu Rashtra, the BJP seems to be orchestrating a communal divide. The foundation of this Hindu Rashtra was, perhaps, laid on January 22, when the prime minister himself, on behalf of the state, carried out the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. The message was loud and clear―Modi was well above all priests and pontiffs,” reads an article by The Week.
Regardless of anyone’s voting preference, as seen in past, it’s undeniable that Modi orchestrated his own narrative and exceled at framing the central issues of the contest. The question remains: Why has BJP not succeeded in doing so in this election season?
BJP backtracks on ‘400 paar’ slogan
Even before the Lok Sabha election dates were announced, the BJP plunged into campaigning mode with its catchy slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar‘. This was followed by an opinion poll by News 18 suggesting that the BJP-led NDA might win many seats—more than 400 out of 543, to be exact.
The opinion poll result was in line with the “400 paar” statement of PM Modi, made during a public address. However, after the two phases of the Lok Sabha elections, BJP seems to forgotten about the “400 paar” slogan as the turnout remained low.
“After the two phases of the Lok Sabha elections, BJP leaders’ body language seems to have changed. They are anxious. They forgot about the ‘400 paar’ slogan and are now giving divisive speeches,” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh told a TV news channel shortly after the second phase of voting.
“BJP people did not know the direction of the wind, so they kept saying 400 paar’ (winning over 400 seats) and when they realised the public sentiment after the two phases of the election, BJP forgot its slogan,” former UP chief minister and Samajvadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav said recently.
Local issues sidelined
In Chandigarh, according to Indian Express, BJP’s campaign majorly focusses on discussing national issues like Chandrayan, Pakistan, Article 370, triple talaq, national highways, and airports, eclipsing the city-based issues.
While citizens are continuously fed with national achievements of the BJP, the leaders campaigning have been keeping away from the city-centric issues. This has been the BJP’s poll strategy in most cities.
Quoting sources, The Indian Express stated, during BJP’s political meetings, it was discussed not to address people on city-specific issues since key promises were still in progress, and that the election be fought only on national issues.
Lower turnout worries BJP?
The BJP banked on Prime Minister Modi’s immense popularity to win a third term in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, according to analysts, the drop in the voter turn out in the first two phases has made the saffron party jittery.
In the second phase, voter turnout reached approximately 65 percent, a decrease from the 69 percent recorded five years ago. This phase encompassed several BJP stronghold states, including regions in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Similarly, the voter turnout in the first phase stood at around 65 percent, marking a decline from the 69 percent recorded during the 2019 election. These trends suggest a consistent pattern of reduced voter enthusiasm during the initial phases.
Some observers have attributed the smaller number of voters to the scorching heat and complacency among BJP supporters, who believe the ruling party’s return to power is inevitable.
Speaking with SCMP, Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an author and independent political analyst, said, “There is a complete absence of an overarching national narrative. It has reasons to make the incumbent or the front runner a bit jittery. Normally, a front runner can sweep up everything if there is a single issue.”
Considering that BJP won a comfortable majority and its highest vote share in 2019, which coincided with higher turnout, the drop in numbers may hurt BJP’s prospects.
