Heads we win, tails you lose. This seems to be the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strategy in the Lok Sabha polls for 2024 in Andhra Pradesh. Surprised? By the looks of it, electoral results will work out to this effect in Andhra Pradesh, a state where the BJP is just marginally present. On its own the BJP can win only a few seats if at all.
The BJP has just tied up with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jana Sena for the 2024 polls. The party in power in the state is YSR Congress Party (YSR CP) that is led by present chief minister Y S R Jagan Reddy. There is no official tie up between YSR Congress and BJP, but the way that the state government is run it would seem that the two parties are in alliance. This has been so since 2019 when the TDP run by Naidu cut itself off from BJP. The TDP and BJP had been together since 2014. In 2019 the BJP was forced to ‘tie up’ (in effect) with YSR CP. According to stories doing the rounds at that time Naidu began to aver that he would tie up with the Congress party: this would lead to greater benefits for him. In fact he would not be limited to just winning the state. But nothing worked out.
Naidu was close to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the earlier BJP Prime Minister and he would seek advice from Chandrababu on many things during his tenure. But this had come to an end in Modi raj. Otherwise Modi and Naidu had good terms and the Prime Minister even attended the foundation stone ceremony for Amaravati, the new capital of Andhra Pradesh in 2015.
After BJP and Naidu broke off, the former lost. BJP informally tied up with YSR CP of Jagan.As readers would remember Jagan was in jail for sixteen months and had been shut up in the last days of Congress party at the Centre. In fact 31 cases were filed against him. When Jagan came out of jail most of the cases remained pending. In 2014 after Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated, Jagan, freshly out of jail, could not do very well in the elections. Naidu’s TDP won the polls after the bifurcation. But in the second polls in 2019 the story was different. Jagan worked very hard and did a long padayatra of the state and garnered a lot of support from the have-nots. As a result of this (and other factors) he swept the polls. His party won a whopping 151 seats out of the total 175 and ousted TDP that could win merely 23 seats. This astounding win made the BJP look favorably at YSR CP. More so, because BJP virtually does not exist in south India and the party is looking at making inroads.
In the run up to the present elections to be held in May 2024, the BJP’s intelligence is that Jagan’s party will get far less number of seats than 2019. Meanwhile finding himself in the cold, Naidu has tied up with Pawan Kalyan and presented himself before BJP. The BJP, perceiving TDP likely to be improving its seat share, has agreed to tie up with the latter. At the same time, the RSS has also been advising the BJP for such an alliance (although it is true that the RSS’s advice is taken less seriously by the BJP presently compared to in the past). Jagan is a Christian and his government is perceived to be working to their benefit, is the charge being made in hard core Hindu circles.
In terms of caste, the TDP has the support of Kammas and Kapus (the support of Kapus is because Pawan Kalyan who is the younger brother Chiranjeevi who had earlier spawned the Praja Rajyam party). Jagan has the support of Reddys, SCs, STs, Muslims and other OBCs. Analysts point out Jagan is now trying to forge a different caste and community combination. His combination is roughly that of the ‘poors’ who are arraigned against the ‘rich’. But will he succeed to come to power again?
Meanwhile his own sister Sharmila has left him and joined the Congress party. She is contesting from their home turf in Kadapa and therefore indirectly challenges Jagan. The present Lok Sabha MP, who is a Jagan party representative, is in trouble because of the murder of Vivekananda Reddy. His daughter Suneeta Reddy, a doctor in Apollo is assiduously and unrelentingly pursuing the case. Vivekananda was the younger brother of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and uncle of Jagan. The case is now being investigated by the CBI and could take a crucial twist anytime. But whatever happens the results will benefit the BJP.
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