Bengaluru: Karnataka is all set to witness high-voltage politics in 2024 with the Congress Government attempting to consolidate its ground by implementing all five of its poll guarantees.
The BJP, buoyed by its victories in three north India states and alliance with the JD(S), is talking confidently of sweeping all 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
On the other hand, the Congress camp in Karnataka is galvanised by the victory of the party in Telangana polls despite the campaign blitzkrieg by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
The Karnataka Congress focussed on implementing its guarantees of free power, free 10 kg of rice, free travel for women and Rs 2,000 allowance for women who are heads of the family.
Now, the Congress Government is all set to implement the fifth and last guarantee i.e. allowance for fresh graduates and diploma holders.
The coming together of the BJP and the JD(S) against the Congress in the state and the appointments of senior Vokkaliga leader R Ashoka as Leader of Opposition and former CM BS Yediyurappa’s son, BJP MLA BY Vijayendra as state President by the BJP high command indicates a close fight between the ruling Congress and the Opposition in the state.
The stage is also set for a political struggle between forward communities and others in the state.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is championing the cause of Ahinda groups and is all set to accept the caste census report much to the chagrin of forward communities.
The Vokkaliga and Lingayat community leaders and pontiffs, considered to be influential in state politics, have warned the Siddaramaiah Government not to accept the report.
The ministers and MLAs from both communities have met Siddaramaiah in this regard and have openly stated their reservations.
AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge had made a statement in the Rajya Sabha that forward castes are opposed to the caste census and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar from Karnataka is no exception. The thinking of all forward community leaders is the same, he said.
Shivakumar later had to clarify that he was not opposed to the idea of delivering justice to the Backward Classes and the objection was about conducting a proper census.
Former MLC and senior BJP leader Captain (Retd) Ganesh Karnik talking to IANS, stated that Karnataka’s politics in the last 25 to 30 years shows the trend of voters reacting distinctly for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.
From 1991, whenever it came to the Lok Sabha polls, it has always gone in favour of the BJP. This is the first factor. The second one is, in the last Assembly election of Karnataka, if the total votes are counted, the BJP did not lose its vote base.
“In fact we polled 8.65 lakh more votes than in the 2018 polls. In 2018, though the BJP got 110 seats, the Congress polled 6.25 lakh votes more than BJP then. It got fewer seats. BJP did not lose its vote base in the last elections, contrary to what everyone said,” he explained.
He added, “What happened is, the Congress got 6.25 lakh votes more than the BJP in 2018. The votes of the JD(S) have come down by 15 lakh in the 2023 Assembly elections. The major chunk of these votes had gone to the Congress. The ruling party got 24 lakh votes additionally this time. It is the shifting of the JD(S) vote base that tilted the results. The projection of Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar was a well thought out strategy. The supporters of the JD(S) and former PM HD Deve Gowda in Mysuru region shifted to the Congress.”
Siddaramaiah made a statement about banning Bajrang Dal during elections that was majorly played up by the saffron party. It was assumed that it would help the BJP, but the development shifted the Muslim votes of the JD(S) to the Congress.
Now, six months after polls, many developments have taken place, the major one being the Ram temple construction in Ayodhya that will create a huge wave for the BJP.
“The guarantee schemes are denting the image of the Congress because of confusions. Differences have cropped up now between Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah,” Karnik stated.
“MLAs and Ministers are in no mood to work for the Lok Sabha polls. No funds for development have resulted in a sense of betrayal among the people. The victories of the BJP in three states will have an impact. The victory of the Congress in Telangana is insignificant,” he opined.
“We will win not less than 20 seats. Today, in the whole nation there is a feeling that the BJP will come to power. This will drive fence sitters also to vote for the BJP. The votes are cast in the name of PM Modi. The central budget will be presented in February, it will also have an impact,” he explained.
Political analyst B Samiulla stated that Karnataka politics is witnessing a polarisation between the Vokkaligas and Linagayat communities. The Congress is searching for potential candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP has the option of fielding former ministers as candidates. In the previous Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had won one seat, this time it may go up to six, seven or eight seats. It is yet to be seen whether the minorities, Dalits and Backward Classes will come together with regard to the caste census. It is too early to predict, he explained.
Former CM HD Kumaraswamy had stated that there are Eknath Shindes and Ajit Pawars in the state politics hinting at dramatic developments similar to Maharashtra in the state. His repeated statements in this regard and predictions about the collapse of the Congress Government in a short span, indicate heavy political activity in the coming days.
Former CM Basavaraj Bommai has predicted that because of the guarantee schemes, Karnataka’s economy will be destroyed as there is no plan for generating additional revenue, while Ashoka has maintained that there is no need to carry out operation lotus and the Congress Government would collapse by itself.
What political developments will unfold in the state in the next few months leading up to the Lok Sabha polls only time will tell.
