In a move seen as stifling the academic freedom in the country, the Intelligence Bureau (IB) has begun probing a research paper titled ‘Democratic Backsliding in the World’s Largest Democracy’, The Wire has reported.
The paper was presented at a conference organised by US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) by Sabyasachi Das, who is a former professor at Ashoka University. The IB has sought to interview faculty members of the university’s economics department regarding the paper, indicating “the possible manipulation” of results in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that resulted in the party winning a disproportionate number of seats in some constituencies.
The paper was widely shared on social media shortly after it was presented at the NBER, prompting fierce criticism by right-wing organisations and individuals.
University issues statement
As the author started receiving flak. Ashoka University was quick to issue a public statement, dissociating itself from the research paper.
“Ashoka University is dismayed by the speculation and debate around a recent paper by one of its former faculty members (Sabyasachi Das, Assistant Professor of Economics) and the university’s position on its contents. The University encourages its 160-plus faculty to carry out research, but does not direct or approve specific research projects by individual faculty members.”
The University further clarified that the paper had not undergone a review process and that it had not been published in an academic journal yet. They also added that the social media activism of faculty members does not reflect the views of the University although it is a common practice for scholars to discuss their research work through social media platforms.
University receives flak
Various scholars across the country and abroad castigated Ashoka University for its move and lauded Das for his ‘groundbreaking work’. Joyojeet Pal, a professor at the University of Michigan, took to Twitter, saying Das’s paper is empirically solid and that it is weak institutions that throw their junior faculty under the bus. He added that multiple commentators, including Paul Gertler, professor of economics at the University of California, said it was one of the most convincing papers he had seen recently.
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor said that the findings of the paper were “hugely troubling” and that the Government of India should have answers available to refute these arguments. He also backed Das over the targeted political attacks he was being subjected to.
However, BJP MP from Jharkhand Nishikant Dubey claimed that the paper was “half-baked research”.
‘Irregularities in election data’
The 50-page research paper that came out in July 2023 compiles several new datasets including candidate-level general election results from 1977 to 2019 and state assemblies’ election results from 2019 to 2021, to come up with evidence to reveal electoral manipulation in closely contested constituencies, primarily in states ruled by the BJP at the time, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The author further explains how the electoral discrimination was targeted at Muslims, India’s largest minority group, whose names were ‘possibly’ deleted from the voter’s list. He goes on to claim that it was partially facilitated by the weak operations of the election observers.
The results inferred in the paper present a pattern of grave concern for the future of the country’s democracy.
However, in the paper, Das clarifies that he cannot comment on the extent of the overall manipulation in the 2019 elections and that he strictly focuses on closely contested seats as an empirical strategy to detect the ‘presence of manipulation’.
In recent elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, opposition parties have accused BJP of tampering with Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in order to rig the results to favour them. Although the accusations have not been substantiated with evidence.
‘Manipulation during registration, voting exercise’
Incidentally, Das states in his paper that the technology of EVMs prevents it from being manipulated for electoral gains. However, he explains, the manipulation takes place at the local level polling booths, involving state civil service officers from BJP-ruled states. Those officials are ‘politically more impressionable’. He writes it is unlikely that the Election Commission of India would be directly involved in the tampering of electoral data.
The author also claims that the BJP went on to win many seats that it actually lost in the 2019 election on account of significant irregularities in the election data. Such irregularities were found in the previous general and state assembly elections neither for the BJP nor the Congress.
Das refutes claims that the BJP might have actually won on account of successful campaigning and mobilisation of party workers. He claims that he did not find evidence for the same after a thorough examination of the National Election Survey of 2019, a post-poll voter survey carried out by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). The survey provides microdata on election campaigning done by political parties.
Even if the claim is true, the BJP’s increase in its primary vote base comes from Hindus, especially lower-caste groups while its support among Muslims has been low in both elections. However, he found evidence of manipulation at the stage of voter registration as well as at the time of voting and counting.
Das resigns from Ashoka University
Last week, Sabyasachi Das submitted his resignation as the assistant professor at Ashoka University following the backlash for his paper. He is currently serving as visiting faculty at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune.
Following his departure, professor Pulapre Balakrishnan stepped down from his position, saying “academic freedom was violated.” The economics department at Ashoka University also wrote an open letter to the institute’s governing body calling out the latter’s “hasty acceptance of Das’ resignation.”
IB probe into paper draws scholars’ ire
As a team from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) knocked on the doors of Ashoka University on Monday and Tuesday, sources on the campus confirmed to IANS that they were looking for Das.
“However, the IB sleuths were informed by the varsity authorities that Das is on leave. The IB officials then requested to meet other faculty members in the economics department.”
Security agencies have not confirmed anything related to the investigation yet.
“We have now gone beyond the absurd,” Jayati Ghosh, economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst in the US, told The Telegraph.
Ghosh initiated the public outcry over the resignation of Das earlier this month after Ashoka distanced itself from his working paper titled, “Democratic Backsliding in the World’s Largest Democracy”.
The newspaper further quotes a former senior faculty of Ashoka saying: “IB regularly visits many institutions, so no surprise. It is also part of FCRA protocols that IB visits institutions before renewal. We went through all this. And no surprise the government is acting more thuggish.”
Interestingly, Ashoka University’s Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) licence is up for renewal in September 2023. The process of renewal of these licences has often been weaponised against institutions that do not align themselves with the ruling powers.
