The June 1 Ukrainian drone attack deep inside the Russian territory causing enormous destruction to President Vladimir Putin’s air-power reminds us of the past records of militarily and scientifically
less advanced country/empire inflicting devastating blows with the help of a different method of warfare on more powerful rival. In a few cases such actions have changed the course of history.
This latest incident has the potential to seriously dent the economic, military and diplomatic clout not only of Moscow, but of all the Western powers.
In recent years, the United States (US) and the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) had to literally run away from Afghanistan—the Communist empire subsequently got dismembered in 1991. In the same way America had to hastily retreat from Iraq and Vietnam. These three small entities had to rely on gorilla tactics to beat back the two Super Powers.
Full-fledged war
In the case of Ukraine-Russia conflict a full-fledged war is going on for the last three years and three months. The two former constituents of the then Soviet Union are using all sorts of latest weapons to destroy each other, though culturally, religiously, ethnically and linguistically they hardly differ.
No doubt Russia has been dominating the war, yet Ukraine has surprised the world by resisting the massive invasion. The June 1 Operation Spider’s Web at four to five air bases in which 41 aircraft were targeted had badly shaken Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the attack had alarmed other powers, especially the United States which has military presence spread all over the world, in particular in the vicinity of Persian Gulf, Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea.
Game-changer
Whether Ukraine finally emerges victorious or not cannot surely be said now, but what can be said with fair amount of certainty is that drones have emerged as a game-changer in the battleground. What
is of concern for the global powers is that a much cheaper weapon has made expensive fifth and even sixth-generation aircraft, ships and missiles worth hundreds of millions of dollars not only vulnerable but irrelevant. They are becoming sitting ducks before apparently less destructive drones costing the price equal to I-phone. Russia’s S-400 defence system had failed to detect the Ukrainian drone onslaught. Herein lay the crux of the matter.
History is replete with the introduction of new patterns of warfare which had brought down big empires. The British failed to control Afghanistan in the 19th and early 20th centuries. War-torn Vietnam gave a
bloody nose to the invading Chinese army in 1979 within four years of the three-decade (1945-75) long conflict with France and America. In both these cases it was the adoption of different strategies and inexpensive weapons which led to the victory over the more powerful rival.
Alexander, Genghis Khan, Timur, Napoleon, Hitler etc. adopted a different type of warfare during their respective era. The early marauding Mongols surprised their enemies in Central Asia, China, East
Europe and finally Baghdad in the 13th century to emerge as the most powerful empire in the world. They succeeded in decimating more powerful military rivals simply because the latter were not familiar with
their style of warfare and their weapons.
The fall of the Abbasid Empire in Baghdad (1258) is a case in point. Here what needs to be understood is that six centuries prior to this devastation, the tiny Arab state of Medina within a few years completely vanquished the Persian and Roman Empires. The two great powers of the seventh century fell like the house-of-cards.
So, within a couple of decades after 630 AD Islamic empire expanded at the fastest rate in the history of mankind. Apart from its ideological message and commitment of the earlier Muslim soldiers, it was
the new type of battle tactic which helped them prevail over the more powerful rivals.
Chink in armour
The problem is that a couple of relatively less powerful countries, for example, Turkey and Iran, have, along with China, gone quite ahead in drone technology. Ukraine has a lot of Turkish-made drones
while Russia relies heavily on Iranian ones.
Drones played a crucial role in the recent India-Pakistan conflict (Nay 7-10). While Pakistan had Turkish and Chinese drones India used the Israeli version.
Not only India, Pakistan, Ukraine and Russia it is the United States and its Western allies who are losing sleep. Until recently they were concerned over the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Now they are
finding it very difficult to take up the challenge posed by drones.
Trillions of dollars invested in making such sophisticated aircraft, ships, sub-marines, and missiles may lose their market value. If the West is rich, it is largely because of the defence industry. A chink
in its armour is quite visible. Any such eventuality is likely to be of devastating impact on the economy of these arms-producing countries of the West.
If Ukraine can smuggle drones 4,000 km deep inside Russia and hit bases near the Mongolian border in Siberia, the United States will have to tread cautiously in the Gulf of Hormuz within striking distance of
Iran, which has mastered the art of drone technology. In the same way Houthis and even Hezbollah and Hamas can use them in future.
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