Even after New Zealand thrashed Sri Lanka in Thursday’s match, there are still mathematical chances for Pakistan to qualify for the ICC World Cup semifinals 2023. However, the toss can dash the hopes of the ‘men in green.’
In today’s match against England, Pakistan must significantly improve their Net Run Rate (NRR) which is possible if ‘men in green’ win by a huge margin. The target margin is so high that it becomes nearly impossible if Pakistan has to bowl first.
Pakistan in ICC World Cup point table
The current ICC World Cup points table shows the first three spots for the 2023 semifinals are already taken by India, South Africa, and Australia. New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are now in competition for the fourth spot.
New Zealand currently holds 10 points and a +0.743 NRR after completing all their knockout stage matches. In contrast, Pakistan and Afghanistan each have 8 points, but their NRRs stand at +0.036 and -0.338, respectively.
The odds are in favor of New Zealand for securing a spot in the semifinals, while Pakistan still holds a glimmer of hope. However, Afghanistan’s chances in the ICC World Cup are nearly extinguished.
| Team | Matches played | Matches won | Matches lost | NRR | Points |
| India | 8 | 8 | 0 | +2.456 | 16 |
| South Africa | 8 | 6 | 2 | +1.376 | 12 |
| Australia | 8 | 6 | 2 | +0.861 | 12 |
| New Zealand | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.743 | 10 |
| Pakistan | 8 | 4 | 4 | +0.036 | 8 |
| Afghanistan | 8 | 4 | 4 | -0.338 | 8 |
| England | 8 | 2 | 6 | -0.885 | 4 |
| Bangladesh | 8 | 2 | 6 | -1.142 | 4 |
| Sri Lanka | 9 | 2 | 7 | -1.419 | 4 |
| Netherland | 8 | 2 | 6 | -1.635 | 4 |
Toss – Pakistan’s first hurdle to qualify for ICC World Cup semifinal
For Pakistan to qualify, they must increase their NRR to +0.75, which can be mathematically achieved in two ways:
- If Pakistan bats first, they need to win by a margin of 288 runs.
- If Pakistan bowls first, they must chase the target with 284 deliveries to spare.
Although the number of deliveries to spare depends on how many runs England scores, it is likely to be so high that it becomes practically unattainable.
In this scenario, the toss will also play a critical role, as Pakistan bowling first would make it practically impossible for the ‘men in green’ to qualify for the ICC World Cup semifinals.
