The Election Commission of India has given some clarity that the Assembly polls will be held in Jammu and Kashmir as all the formalities have been completed. That is, the delimitation commission has submitted its report – the number of the constituencies is 90, and the electoral rolls have been revised. There are over 8.3 million voters eligible to exercise their right to vote. As such, there is no legal hurdle in holding the polls in the union territory. But the CEC added that, weather and security will have to be taken into consideration before taking a final call on the announcement of the elections. That is a precautionary statement – the Election Commission wants to be doubly sure that there are slips in the elections because of the weather conditions, especially winters, as the Union Territory’s terrain spread over to the Himalayan heights of 12,000 plus feet can become a factor in ensuring the level playing field for all the electorate.
So, on the face of it, this statement looks quite promising, the windows for assembly polls will open to the bright spring in which the long lost fragrance of democracy will fill the air again. In short that, the roads, and all the pathways, currently blocked by snow, will be clear and the temperatures would be pleasant enough for the voters to come out and vote.
For J&K, security and the polls are inseparable, especially since the 1990s. The security aspect is not as simple as it is believed to be. There are layers within layers regarding the security in J&K. There are internal and external dimensions. The external threat to J&K is traced to Pakistan. It is true that Pakistan never recognized the elections in Kashmir as a legitimate democratic expression of the people. It has and continues to call the polls in J&K as farce. This time, Pakistan can be expected to do something to cause disruption in the polls, as that would legitimize its stand that the people were angry with Delhi over the abrogation of Article 370 that snapped the special status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Internally, however, there are various sections, especially the militants, their supporters, who believe that participation in the polls would validate the Indian claim on the territory. There is yet another security threat, which analysts ignore, how the people view the current situation. They are caught in a dilemma. The simple participation in the election process in the post Article 370 abrogation ( since August 5, 2019) has two dimensions. One, there is an urge to come out and vote and say what they wanted. There is an apprehension that participation in huge numbers, may be interpreted as the dawn of real democracy in Jammu and Kashmir and that may not be to the liking of the antipeople forces in the UT.
If the polls are held in 2023, the security situation as compared to the previous polls, particularly since 1996, it is much better. Not only there has been a drastic decline in the number of terror incidents and killings, but there is also a perceptible change in the atmosphere wherein the people feel fearless and are more than willing to take part in polls.
They have rallied at the rallies, raised full throated slogans for the polls, and urged the administration to hold polls at the earliest. All political parties, barring BJP, of course, are asking for elections. Participation in the elections is going to be huge.
The Election Commission should take feedback from the political parties and civil society, and demonstrate that it is keener to hold the polls. The government instead of taking refuge in the weather and security situations should understand that any further delay in conducting polls in J&K will do no good to it. Its record in Kashmir will come into question.
The polls will help validate that democracy has percolated down to the last man on the ground. Any further delay in conducting the polls will dent its own claim of normalcy and ready for the democratic exercise. And, more importantly, it should come out of its mindset of sweeping the polls. It should be ready to accept the people’s verdict, if it goes in its favour, in political terms, it has reason to celebrate, and even if it doesn’t go that way, again it has a reason to celebrate, the return of real-time democracy in J&K after a hiatus of nearly five years. Continuing Central rule in Kashmir is anathema to its image while ending it will refurbish its image of being a fan of democracy even at places where it is uncertain of its victory, rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding.
| Posted by Sameer Khan | 
