The dynamics of Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir have changed with an aggressive approach of the BJP after the “Pran Prathishat” ceremony at Ram temple in Ayodhya last week, and the wounds that the INDIA bloc inflicted on itself.
Against the backdrop of the overwhelming Hindu nationalism mood spanning in the country after the inauguration of the Ram temple by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s confidence of returning to power has gone several notches up, the opposition caught in its own cobweb complicated by the exit of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar from the alliance is not finding a credible way out. But Jammu and Kashmir is an altogether different ballgame where BJP is marching ahead, at least in terms of its campaign. Its goal in this Union Territory is all about winning at least one out of the three Lok Sabha seats in the Valley. It is pinning hope on scoring a credible victory in the Anantnag constituency, which now straddles between north and south of Pir Panjal. Part of this constituency lies in south Kashmir and the rest in Rajouri and Poonch districts in the Jammu region. Earlier, it comprised four districts of south Kashmir- Anantnag Kulgam, Pulwama, and Sopian, but after the delimitation massive changes were made to its demography and geography. The present constituency presents an advantage for the BJP, as the two districts of Rajouri and Poonch are highly polarized. The two districts have a substantial Hindu population, despite being Muslim-majority regions. And BJP is also banking upon the vote of the Pahari–speaking population that has been promised Scheduled Tribe status. That can tilt the balance from its traditional loyalty to regional parties National Conference and PDP. It also used to be a bastion of Congress in 1960s.
BJP had been trying its luck on the electoral landscape of Kashmir since 1980s, but each time it met with failure. It had drawn blank in the last Lok Sabha elections despite holding all levers of power in J&K. Now it is hoping that the welfare programmes launched by the Central government under the leadership of the Prime Minister will deliver electoral dividends. Its victory in the Hindu-dominated constituencies of Jammu, and Udhampur is seen as certain in the LS polls. Two factors play out in these Hindu-dominated constituencies; one the majority population is inclined toward the saffron party and the community sees Modi as a strong leader who can protect their survival and interests. These feelings have received a boost with the inauguration of the Ram Temple and the vision that the PM laid out on the occasion of presenting an agenda for the next 1000 years. Second, there is a history of the Hindus in the Jammu region having a natural fear of other communities that had ruled the erstwhile state for decades. Third, and the more profound factor is that they don’t see any other party as an alternative to BJP. “If not BJP, then who should we vote for,” is a common refrain. among the voters in the Jammu region.
Though NC and PDP had little chance on these two seats, Congress which had been winning on these seats since 1989 surrendered itself to BJP. It has not been able to recover since 2014. The new political life that it had received after Rahul Gandhi’s “Bharat Jodo Yatra” that had concluded in Srinagar in January last year, has been squandered by the party. It has not been able to build upon the narrative of its own. It is seeking to thrive on anti-Modi narration and the people are not finding any alternate vision in what the party leaders are saying. And now with the virtual collapse of the INDIA bloc, it is string hollowness.
Jammu and Kashmir contributes only five seats, but since this LS poll is being held first time since the abrogation of Article 370 more than four years ago, it has never-before connotations, a test for BJP to justify its decisions of doing away with the special status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir and its split into two Union Territories and delaying Assembly polls for more than five years.
For regional parties, NC and PDP, it is a do-or-die. They know that they are up against a formidable opponent, rich in resources and narrative embracing one and all Their battle for preserving Kashmiri identity suffered a dent when the Supreme Court, in its decision on December 11, held the abrogation of Article 370 as legal and constitutional and it did not comment on the split of the state into two UTs.
The situation is complex. Whatever may be the outcome of the LS polls in the rest of the country, Kashmir will send its own message. If BJP wins even a single seat in the Valley, it would break a jinx of decades, and the victory of regional parties will place a parallel narrative in the air. That is what the poll in Kashmir represents.
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