(With contributions from Veena Nair)
Hyderabad: Though the Congress won the Telangana Assembly elections last year, beating the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), it was in fact the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that silently made impressive gains in the state. Nearly doubling its vote share to 13.90% from the 7% it secured in the 2018 state elections, the BJP today has managed to gain deposits in constituencies where it never even had a footing earlier.
Voting patterns for the state and Lok Sabha elections are different, and data also show that voters don’t tend to vote similarly for both. This explains why in spite of the BJP getting just one Assembly in the 2018 state polls, it managed to win four Lok Sabha seats with a 20% vote share in the 2019 general elections within months.
However, in the backdrop of last year’s Telangana Assembly elections, if the BJP manages to perform better and win more than the four Parliament seats it won in the 2019 elections, then in all likelihood it will be able to gain a strong foothold in Telangana in the coming days. Moreover, political observers have also predicted that this time the Lok Sabha fight in Telangana is between the Congress and BJP as the BRS is unlikely to perform strongly after its defeat last year.
BJP’s performance in the 2023 Telangana state polls
A look at the 2023 Assembly election data shows that the saffron party has managed to increase its presence and gain vote shares in over 45 out of Telangana’s 119 constituencies. In fact, it managed to even come in second at some places. These include seats like Bodhan (19.52%), Jagtial (23.89%) and Mancherial (20.69%) where the BJP has managed to improve its vote share, where it never had any presence.
It may be noted that the BJP historically has had a presence in Hyderabad where it has been winning Assembly and Parliamentary seats on its own or with alliances. The important thing to note is its growth across Telangana’s 33 districts (to a varying extent), with some being small gains, while others were a big jump. Data from last year’s elections also show that the BJP has eaten into the BRS voteshare in several seats, also the Congress in some cases.
In the event that the BRS, which is led by ex-chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR), becomes severely weak, the BJP could easily replace the party as an alternative. in case there is ever a political vacuum in Telangana. It should also be noted that after the Telangana state elections last year, BRS MLAs like Danam Nagender and ex-minister Kadiam Srihari joined the Congress, while a few sitting MPs also shifted to the BJP.
| Constituency | Vote share in 2018 Assembly polls % | Vote share in 2023 Assembly polls % |
| Mudhole | 19.86 | 48.59 |
| Armur | 13.96 | 44.9 |
| Kamareddy | 9.52 | 31.09 |
| Nizamabad Urban | 15.99 | 40.82 |
| Balakonda | 2.0 | 17.3 |
| Bodhan | 5.31 | 19.52 |
| Jagital | 3.02 | 23.89 |
| Khanapur | 15.63 | 30.07 |
| L B Nagar | 8.81 | 30.18 |
| Mancherial | 3.01 | 20.69 |
| Nirmal | 9.76 | 54.03 |
| Parkal | 1.40 | 20.43 |
| Quthbullapur | 3.40 | 25.5 |
| Rajendranagar | 7.82 | 27.31 |
| Secunderabad Cantt | 13.16 | 33.64 |
| Warangal West | 4.19 | 18.46 |
| Warangal East | 3.04 | 30.05 |
| Yellareddy | 3.77 | 14.61 |
In the above chart, one can see that the BJP has made impressive gains. For example, in Warangal West, BJP managed to increase its vote share from 4.19% in 2018 to 18.46% in 2023, reducing the BRS candidate’s numbers. Similarly in Warangal East, BJP’s vote share shot up from just 3.04% to 30.04%, coming second. The BRS had won the seat with over 50% of votes in 2018. Other seats also tell similar stories.
“Congress will have only to something to celebrate only June 2. We will win double digit seats of which Chevella, Malkajgiri, Zaheerabad and Mahbubnagar will be big wins,” said BJP spokesperson NV Subhash.
Prof Venkatesu added that in Telangana the Congress’ government’s performance in terms of promises it has made will also be a deciding factor. “The Congress is expecting to sweep towards Nalgonda and Mahbubnagar. it is in seats like Karimnagar, Nizamabad and Medak where we can expect a tight fight,” he explained.
“Now it is being anticipated that apart from holding on to their four seats from 2019, the BJP could win more in Telangana. Whether that will happen has to be seen. The people who were defeated in the Assembly polls last year (including ex-BJP state chief Bandi Sanjay and ex-Huzurubad MLA Eatala Rajender), are also contesting again now. They are in one category, and the other is of ex-BRS leaders who joined BJP before the Lok Sabha elections. Nine out of 17 BJP candidates are from BRS,” said Prof E Venkatesu.
The UoH faculty member added that the BRS will have an existential crisis going into the future. “In a recent CSDS Lokniti survey, the response for Hindutva was very meagre. BJP managed to increase its MLAs and vote share as it gave mor tickets to Backward Classes, which has lost the confidence of the Congress and BRS,” Prof Venkatesu told Siasat.com.
BJP post Telangana’s formation
Telangana was bifurcated from Andhra Pradesh in 2014, and simultaneous elections were held for both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections that year. In 2014, the BJP and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had a pre-poll alliance and the former contesting in 45 seats, out of which it won five. All the constituencies it won (Uppal, Musheerabad, Amberpet, Goshamahal and LB Nagar) were from Hyderabad, and the party managed to get a 19% vote share.
The TDP then won 15 seats out of the 72 it fought in (12 of its MLAs, however, switched over to the TRS and one to the Congress later). The TRS came to power by winning 63 seats in 2014. The BRS, then TRS, had come to power by winning 63 seats, while the Congress bagged 21 seats in the Assembly. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) retained its 7 seven constituencies in Hyderabad, while the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) also managed to win a handful of seats.
BRS chief KCR soon engineered large scale defections and virtually emptied the TDP and Congress camps. He als dissolved the Assembly six months in advance, hence the second Telangana elections were held in December 2018. The BRS stormed to power by winning 88 out of 119 seats, while the Congress, BJP and AIMIM got 19, one and seven seats each.
Interestingly in 2018, the TDP had broken ties with the BJP nationally, and hence allied with the Congress in Telangana. The partnership however failed to yield results and the TDP (headed by ex-AP chief minister Chandrababu Naidu) has since been finished in Telangana).
Though many had written-off the BJP after its 2018 debacle, it managed to shock everyone by winning four Parliamentary seats in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections – Karimnagar, Secunderabad, Nizamabad and Adilabad – with about 20% of the vote share. The Congress won three, while the BRS secured nine. With that in mind, and last year’s performance in the Assembly elections, it is to be seen if the BJP continues to grow.
A BRS leader, who did not want to be quoted, said that the party is in fray in a handful of seats this time and that it was not expecting to win more seats. Congress leaders on the other hand said that they are confident of winning over 10 in the state at the very least.
