Bengaluru: The BJP is going to face a litmus test in the 2023 state assembly elections in the north Karnataka region considered its bastion. Fingers are crossed over how the people of this region would react to the saffron partys experiments.
The voters of the region played a major role in elevating the BJP to power by rallying behind former chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa who was asked to step down. The latest episodes of the exit of former CM Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, both Lingayat leaders, who are claiming humiliation by BJP leaders and joined the Congress party have forced the ruling party to do fire fighting.
North Karnataka, comprising both Kittur and Kalyan Karnataka regions, has 13 districts with 90 assembly seats. Presently the BJP holds 52 seats, the Congress 32 and the JD (S) 6 seats.
The region comprises Belagavi, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Gadag, Dharwad, Haveri, Bidar, Raichur, Koppal, Vijayanagar and Bellary districts. There is a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP in most of the places. The JD (S) is hopeful of garnering seats in double digits.
The BJP is facing a challenge from the Kalyan Karnataka Rajya Paksha (KKRP) launched by mining baron-turned-politician Janardhan Reddy. The BJP has maintained a distance from him following allegations against him, leading to his exit from the party.
His party is likely to affect the BJP vote bank in the Hyderabad Karnataka region known as the Kalyan Karnataka region. The fight will become intense in Bellary, Raichur, Koppal, Yadgir and Vijayanagar districts.
Secondly, Srirama Sena founder Pramod Muthalik has vowed to defeat the BJP. As he has considerable influence among Hindu activists of the north Karnataka region, the development is likely to prove a setback for the BJP.
When compared to the BJP, the Congress which bagged 32 seats in the last elections, has become ambitious this time. The Panchamasali agitation and exit of influential Lingayat leaders Shettar and Savadi will break the vote bank of the BJP. Sources in the Congress say that their leader Rahul Gandhi is repeatedly claiming the party will cross 150 seats in the elections because of hints of getting a major chunk of seats from this region.
The elevation of Mallikarjun Kharge to the post of AICC president would also help to get the votes of the oppressed classes in the region, which are in significant numbers.
Both the BJP and the Congress are focused on winning the maximum number of seats from Belagavi district which has 18 assembly seats. The BJP won 13 seats and the Congress only five seats in the last elections. Locals say that this time the Congress will win at least 12 seats.
Talking to IANS, political analyst Basavaraj Sulibhavi said that the Lingayat community is upset with the treatment meted out to Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi. With this development, about 20 per cent of the Lingayat votes will shift.
He explained that if the Congress party utilizes them across north Karnataka and they go on narrating their story of humiliation in the region, it will tilt the Lingayat votes to a large extent. “The people of the region already have the feeling that their leaders are being used and trashed by the BJP,” he added.
Sulibhavi stated that till date the Lingayat community is standing firmly behind Yediyurappa. In the last elections 90 per cent of the Lingayat votes went to the BJP. This time it won’t happen and there will be a divide of at least 30 per cent votes.
“The BJP initially gathers strength from communities. Its main agenda is Hindutva. The party has used the Madiga, Bhovi, Lamani communities which come under Scheduled Caste along with Lingayats. But it is not easy in Karnataka, if they want to propagate Hindutva. The people are more connected to their communities,” he stated.
Ashok Chandaragi, activist and president of the Belagavi District Kannada Organizations Action Committee, told IANS that the BJP will have to face anti-incumbency in the rural parts of the region. With the joining of Shettar and Savadi, the Congress will win more than 40 seats out of the 56 assembly seats in the Kittur Karnataka region.
Another significant factor is that no party has returned to power in Karnataka after 1985. The Janata Dal government under the leadership of late Ramkrishna Hegde managed to win 139 seats. Yediyurappa was removed unceremoniously. If age was the factor, then why are BJP leaders bringing him to the forefront now, questions Ashok Chandaragi.
The Lingayat community which is economically and socially forward can see that their leadership is being used only for campaigning and canvassing. Shettar belongs to the Banajiga sub caste and the BJP will see its effect in at least 25 constituencies in Bijapur, Dharwad, Kalaburagi and Bagalkot districts, he said.
The BJP has to remember that if not for 56 senior leaders from the Janata parivar, it would have never come to power. The Janata parivar’s vote shifted to the BJP. The BJP is now thinking of emerging victorious on PM Modi’s image, he maintained.
As the state is inching closer to elections, the situation is becoming tougher for all political parties in Karnataka. It is to be seen whether the Congress will capture the region or PM Modi will tilt the voters towards the saffron party. Underdog JD (S) is also hoping to make its mark. Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann has also stated that the AAP party is receiving greater support in the north Karnataka region.
