Pakistan is likely to run out of liquefied natural gas (LNG) within the next 10 days as disruptions to Qatar’s export infrastructure halt supplies from the Gulf, triggering a wider global energy crunch, according to a report by the Financial Times.
The conflict, which began on February 28, has disrupted energy infrastructure and shipping routes across the region. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a key transit corridor — has halted LNG flows, while retaliatory strikes following an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field have further destabilised supply.
Qatar, which accounts for about a fifth of global LNG production, has suspended exports after missile strikes damaged its Ras Laffan Industrial City. State-owned QatarEnergy said the attacks reduced export capacity by around 17 percent and could take years to repair, forcing force majeure on some long-term contracts.
On Monday, March 23, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Gas said it had made temporary adjustments to LNG production and exports due to ongoing shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The company added it is working with customers on a transaction-by-transaction basis to meet supply commitments, according to a stock exchange filing.
Its Das Island facility, with an annual capacity of 6 million metric tonnes, depends on tanker transit through the same route.
Several LNG cargoes that departed Qatar and the United Arab Emirates before the conflict are still en route. However, shipping and market analysts cited by the Financial Times warn these are among the final deliveries before global markets face a sharp supply squeeze.
South Asia faces immediate risk
Rising tensions are disrupting global energy markets, pushing up oil and gas prices and threatening LNG supplies to South Asia, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The report said Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are particularly exposed due to their reliance on imports routed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan remains the most vulnerable, sourcing nearly all its LNG from Qatar and the UAE. Authorities have prioritised domestic supply by cutting around 78 million cubic feet per day to fertiliser plants and reducing regasification at import terminals, according to IEEFA.
Despite these measures, limited access to alternative supplies and rising spot prices are expected to strain the energy system if disruptions persist.
Short-term cushion, long-term strain
Pakistan entered 2026 with an LNG surplus due to weak demand, high prices and rapid growth in solar power, the IEEFA report noted. Imports rose to 7.85 million tonnes in FY2024, but consumption declined as gas-fired power plants became less competitive.
The power sector, which accounts for the majority of LNG use, scaled back generation, leaving several plants underutilised. At the same time, expansion in distributed solar capacity reduced grid demand, easing pressure on gas consumption, according to IEEFA.
The report said these factors could provide a limited buffer if the Middle East crisis is contained within weeks.
Costs surge as options narrow
A prolonged disruption is expected to drive costs higher. LNG prices in Asia have risen sharply, while shipping costs have increased due to longer routes and tighter vessel availability, according to market data cited in the Financial Times report.
Pakistan’s long-term contracts have added to the strain, forcing authorities to divert or resell cargoes amid weak demand, according to IEEFA. These arrangements have contributed to mounting circular debt, estimated at around USD 11 billion.
A scheduled LNG price review with Qatar in 2026 could offer scope to renegotiate terms, particularly as existing contracts are linked to relatively high crude benchmarks, the report said.
India and global response
India, the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer, is also exposed to the disruption, relying on Qatar for a significant share of its gas supply.
On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India is engaging with global suppliers to secure oil, gas and LNG from multiple sources to ensure uninterrupted availability.
“Qatar’s LNG capacity has been hit; this will affect us as well,” Sujata Sharma, a joint secretary in the petroleum ministry, told reporters, according to Reuters.
Across the globe, governments are introducing measures to manage shortages. Bangladesh has cut energy use by shutting institutions, Sri Lanka has imposed fuel rationing, and Thailand has introduced conservation steps. China has restricted fuel exports, while the United Kingdom is preparing contingency plans to curb consumption, according to official statements and media reports.
Global oil prices have surged sharply since the conflict began, adding pressure on import-dependent economies and raising broader inflation concerns, according to international market data.
Shift towards alternatives
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said the crisis underscores the need for countries to reduce dependence on imported LNG and accelerate the transition to alternative energy sources.
It urged Pakistan to align LNG procurement with actual demand, introduce greater flexibility in contracts, and adopt a more forward-looking energy strategy.
Until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and damaged infrastructure is restored, global energy markets are expected to remain under sustained pressure, according to international reports.
